Auto Industry Briefing — week ending 27th October 2019
Yamaha says cars are a waste of time and money; remote control tanks with limited range; and Tesla gets all mushy about big cars. Please enjoy our auto industry and mobility briefing for 21st October to 27th October 2019. A PDF version can be found here.
Before you read the detail, what were my favourite stories of the past week…?
- The World Is Not Enough — Yamaha has decided that cars are a waste of time, despite pouring time, money and effort into developing a city car. The brand says it is too hard to differentiate from the existing entrants because they are doing such a good job. Why do so many start-ups disagree?
- Stuck In The Middle With You — Russia has apparently been fielding remote control tanks in Syria, employing presumably similar technologies to the companies than plan to rescue self-driving cars when they break down. They have been rubbish and can’t be let far off the leash because the operators lose control and buildings keep getting in the way of the communication signals. As a military program, budget is unlikely to be the problem. What lessons does this hold for start-ups planning to operate in this space (and autonomous vehicle developers whose solutions rely on such a service) — apart from not to operate in a warzone?
- Never Gonna Give You Up — Elon Musk says Tesla is only making Model S and Model X for sentimental reasons. It’s a departure from conventional logic in many ways: the vehicles are still selling relatively well despite being long in the tooth; they are Tesla’s highest revenue vehicles (semi-truck aside) and; they don’t face much competition in their segments. Is the firm making a bold move in putting them out to pasture, or is it a sign of overstretch?
News is arranged by company and topic. Stories that apply to more than one company or topic are duplicated.
Find our archive here.
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News about the major automakers
- Reported Q3 2019 revenue of €43.4 billion (up 8% versus prior year) and EBIT of €2.7 billion, also up 8% YoY. Despite the improved headline figures, Daimler continues to worry about the outlook and said the truck division will perform more poorly in the full year than previously thought — the Q3 2019 truck order book has shrunk by around one third compared with the same period in 2018. (Daimler)
- Daimler believes it is feasible to meet 2020 EU CO2 targets, although executives caution that there is still a risk that unforeseen circumstances could hamper the road map in place. The firm is more relaxed about 2021 and beyond because it will have a broader electric vehicle offering by then. (Seeking Alpha)
- The capital markets day in November will be the culmination of nine months planning. (Seeking Alpha)
- A shipment of 900 Mercedes cars was sent packing by Australian customs officials after stowaway snails were found hiding in them. (The Guardian)
- Investing €50 million to produce battery packs at the Mirafiori, Italy, plant. (FCA)
- Ford announced Q3 2019 sales of 1.244 million vehicles, down (8)% on a year-over-year basis. Revenue of $37 billion fell (2)% YoY and net income of $0.4 billion dropped (60)% YoY. Ford revised full year guidance down, blaming higher warranty costs and increased discounting in the US. (Ford)
- The UAW announced Ford as the next negotiating target. (Detroit News)
- A slide
in Ford’s Q3 earnings deck revealed that the Russia JV will become part of the
international markets group when reporting starts in 2020. (Ford)
- Significance: This is presumably because Russia (where Ford has run up heavy losses) is regarded as an emerging market when compared with other markets traditionally within the European division. Confusingly, the (profitable) Turkish joint venture is being treated somewhat differently and will remain in European reporting.
- Ford has
learned “a lot” from self-driving trials. Amongst key insights gained by the
team are that takeaway orders are delivered to privately-owned dwellings —
often in the suburbs. Ford’s initial assumption had been that people would
order food to locations close to the restaurant. (Ford)
- Significance: Ford could have learned the pattern of food deliveries without any self-driving vehicles involved, offering such lessons as proof of the depth of Ford’s testing instead serves to highlight how inefficiently the firm’s self-driving experiments are planned.
Geely (includes Volvo) (history)
- Volvo reported Q3 2019 revenue of 64 billion SEK (about $6.7 billion), 14.2% better than prior year, and net income of 2 billion SEK (about $244 million). (Volvo)
- Volvo is absolutely sure that the all-electric version of the XC40 will be profitable and aims to boost take-up of plug-in hybrids by refunding charging costs for the first 12 months. (Detroit News)
- UAW members approved GM’s new contract and returned to work. (CNBC)
- Appeared to bring forward the target for electrification of European vehicles from 2025 to 2022; on closer inspection Honda committed to the earlier date for all “mainstream models”. Honda also confirmed that by 2022 there would be two battery electric cars on sale in Europe. (Honda)
- Launched
the new Fit / Jazz B-Car, which will be exclusively sold as a (nearly full
time) motor-as-generator powered hybrid. Emissions figures haven’t yet been
released but rivals will take a keen interest when they are. (Honda)
- Significance: Introducing a second motor-as-generator model (with some direct drive at high speed) indicates Honda’s confidence that mainstream consumers will be happy with the powertrain (something Nissan’s experience in the Japanese market supports).
- Kia sold 691,151 vehicles in Q3 2019, up 0.6% on a year-over-year basis. Revenue of 15 trillion KRW (about $12.9 billion) rose 7.2% and net profit of 325 billion KRW (about $280 million) was 9.4% better. (Kia)
- Hyundai sold 1.1 million units in 2019, a (1.6)% decline versus a year earlier. Revenue of 27 trillion KRW (about $23 billion) increased 10.4% year-over-year thanks to improved mix and operating income of 379 billion KRW (about $320 million) rose 31% — which Hyundai said would have been higher if not for one off costs. (Hyundai)
- Hyundai showed some of its latest thinking on electrification and is now targeting sales of 560,000 all-electric vehicles in 2025. (Hyundai)
- Lidar developer Velodyne received $50 million in funding from Hyundai Mobis. (Hyundai Mobis)
- Hyundai is thinking about increasing its share in its Chinese heavy vehicle joint venture. (Reuters)
Mazda
- Unveiled the all-electric MX-30 SUV which incorporates RX-8 style suicide rear doors. The car’s 35.5 kWh battery is significantly smaller than forthcoming competitor products. (Mazda)
Nissan (includes Mitsubishi) (history)
- Despite previously announced plans to expand Datsun’s portfolio, Nissan reportedly now intends to stop development of new products and drop the brand when current cars’ lifecycle ends. (Autocar)
- Nissan showed two concepts in Tokyo, both all-electric: Ariya, an SUV; and IMk, a small people carrier. (Nissan)
- Mitsubishi also showed two concepts in Tokyo: an electric dune buggy called Mi-Tech and a preview of the next generation of Japanese market kei cars. (Mitsubishi)
- Reportedly
open to offers for factories in Barcelona, Spain and Sunderland, UK as part of
a bid to slim down Nissan’s footprint in Europe. (Bloomberg)
- Significance: With the likes of SAIC’s (former Rover) Longbridge factory, NEVS’s nearly empty (former Saab) Trollhättan site and Nedcar failing to generate any interest, it isn’t clear why the Nissan facilities would provoke a different reaction… unless there is a hard Brexit and you are a French manufacturer with a decent UK market share who sells products made on the same platforms Sunderland is tooled up for…
PSA (includes Opel/Vauxhall) (history)
- Reported Q3 2019 revenue of €15.6 billion, 1% better than prior year. Automotive revenue of €11.8 billion barely budged; volume reductions and bad news exchange were balanced by positive mix. (PSA)
- Offloaded the remainder of Peugeot Motorcycles to Mahindra & Mahindra. (PSA)
- In the earnings call, PSA disclosed that Opel’s R&D contracts with GM will cease in 2021 and said that diesel mix had been steady at around 30% of sales for the last eight months. (Seeking Alpha)
- Although PSA forecasts that the margin of plug-in hybrid vehicles will be lower than pure ICE powertrains, the firm plans for them to be profitmaking. (Seeking Alpha)
- Published Q3 2019 revenue (after earlier announcing headline figures). Renault sold 852,198 vehicles, a drop of (4.4)% on a year-over-year basis. Revenue of €11.3 billion, down (1.6)% YoY contained a (3.9)% YoY drop in the core automotive business excluding the finance company and Avtovaz. Renault said the biggest factor was a drop in sales to partners (primarily Nissan and Iran). (Renault)
- Reviewing the “Drive The Future” plan, and targets; interim CEO Delbos stated that are no options off the table with the Formula One team and Alpine mentioned as two business areas that will face scrutiny. (Seeking Alpha)
- Renault will offer fuel cell versions of the Kangoo and Master commercial vehicles — but they will be super expensive… the Kangoo (small) van will cost €48,500, plus sales tax. (Renault)
- Tata (including JLR) reported Q3 2019 (fiscal Q2) revenue of 65,432 cr INR (about $9.2 billion) and PBT of 621 cr INR (about $88 million). (Tata)
- JLR reported Q3 2019 (fiscal Q2) revenue of £6.1 billion, up 8% on a year-over-year basis. Pre tax profit was £156 million. JLR claim to have made £162 million of year over year structural cost reductions and a £285 million lower investment spending. (JLR)
- Reported Q3 automotive revenue of $5.35 billion, down (13)% on a year-over-year basis despite an increase in sales (but worsening mix between Model 3 and Model S / X). Profit before tax of $176 million was down (35)% YoY, but up on a quarter-over-quarter basis — partly due to reduced overhead and variable costs. (Tesla)
- For the first time since Q1 2018, Tesla’s customer deposits increased, indicating a potential swell of interest in the Model 3 (especially considering that deposit amounts have been reduced). (Tesla)
- CEO Musk said Tesla had diverted resources from stationary storage to fix problems with Model 3, resulting in an 18 month development hiatus, but the division was now back firing on all cylinders. Musk believes that the solar and stationary storage groups will eventually rival the automotive side of the business in size. (Seeking Alpha)
- Aims to reach a production rate of 1,000 Model Y per week by “no later than the middle of 2020”. Tesla says the vehicle bill of material should be about the same as the Model 3, whilst hoping (not unrealistically) average transaction values will be higher. (Seeking Alpha)
- Elon Musk clarified that his expectation is that by year end, Tesla cars will be capable of driving complex routes “most likely without interventions” (i.e. what many people would recognise as SAE level 3). Tesla hasn’t yet given any details on how the vehicle would hand off to the driver. (Seeking Alpha)
- Characterised the Model S and Model X as niche products produced for sentimental reasons and without much relevance to Tesla’s future. (Seeking Alpha)
- According to Lexus, the LF-30 previews how electric luxury cars will look in 2030. (Lexus)
- Without offering any further explanation, Toyota announced an electrified witch’s broomstick could be part of the future mobility portfolio. (Toyota)
- Denied any interest in alternative locations for the recently delayed Turkish factory. (Economic Times of India)
Other
- Yamaha no longer has plans to develop cars. (Autocar)
- Russian ministers believe there is huge demand in the Middle East for the Aurus limousine, claiming 600 orders for the car. (TASS)
- Neuron added further vehicles to the company’s existing (digitally rendered) announcements: a Semi truck / tractor unit and a “multi purpose electric utility vehicle”. (Neuron)
- BAIC plans to launch a new brand named Beijing. (Reuters)
- The
suggested price for Bollinger’s SUV and pick-up truck is $125,000. (Bollinger)
- Significance: Whilst out of the price range for most consumers, the vehicle specification suggests a high variable cost and the lack of direct competition (outside of electric conversions of M-B G-Class) means buyers will be less price sensitive (albeit relatively low in number).
News about other companies and trends
Economic / Political News
- US officials said that although forthcoming changes to the standards had been billed as weakening fuel economy rules, the elimination of exemptions in outer years could make them harder for OEMs to achieve. (Reuters)
- UK electric vehicles may get green number plates so that local authorities can more easily recognise vehicles that qualify for reduced price parking. (BBC)
Suppliers
- Lear reported Q3 2019 revenue of $4.8 billion and adjusted net income of $217 million. (Lear)
- Goodyear reported Q3 2019 revenue of $3.8 billion, volumes for OEMs dropped (5)% from prior year. (Goodyear)
- Michelin reported a (4)% drop in shipments to OEMs in Q3 2019 versus a year earlier with the biggest drops coming in the Africa / India / Middle East region. (Michelin)
- Continental will recognise a €2.6 billion in Q3 2019 financial results, mainly impairments because it thinks the automotive market won’t significantly grow over the next five years. On the bright side, preliminary results say Q3 2019 is about in line with analysts’ expectations. (Continental) The complete spin-off of powertrain arm Vitesco is now the only option on the table. (Continental)
- Mahle announced further site closures and job losses, mainly due to the decline of traditional powertrains. (Mahle)
- Nidec reported Q3 2019 revenue of 390 billion JPY (about $3.6 billion) and PBT of 32.6 billion JPY. (Nidec) The full year guidance has been revised downward, but Nidec will increase the dividend. (Nidec)
- Martinrea announced a collaboration with Chinese casting firm Millison. (Martinrea)
Ride-Hailing, Car Sharing & Rental (history)
- Lyft’s founders expect the firm to be profitable by Q4 2021. (WSJ)
- Uber’s CEO says emerging markets will be a source of far greater growth over the next ten years than western countries. (Reuters)
- Ride hailing firm InstaCar raised an undisclosed sum. (Deal Street Asia)
Driverless / Autonomy (history)
- Autonomous vehicle developer Zoox raised $200 million. (Forbes)
- Lidar developer Velodyne received $50 million in funding from Hyundai Mobis. (Hyundai Mobis)
- Sense Photonics started online sales of a $2,900 short range lidar unit. (Sense)
- Remote
controlled Russian tanks in Syria
reportedly demonstrated underwhelming performance, with signals being
repeatedly lost. Apparently, controllers can only reliably sit 400m from the
tank. (National Interest)
- Significance: Although part of the explanation could be electronic signal jamming, autonomous vehicle operators intending to take remote control may suffer similar problems in built-up areas (a Russian military program is unlikely to be worse-funded than many of the start-ups involved in this space).
- Axon says it will offer police forces an automatic
number plate recognition system and, so that it can protect the data, it will
all be kept in a “secure cloud-based” system so that it cannot be sold. (Axon)
- Significance: If orders meet Axon’s expectations, this will become one of the initial large scale data collection activities, testing both the ability of the system to learn and Axon’s ability to keep secrets.
- Elon Musk clarified that his expectation is that by year end, Tesla cars will be capable of driving complex routes “most likely without interventions” (i.e. what many people would recognise as SAE level 3). Tesla hasn’t yet given any details on how the vehicle would hand off to the driver. (Seeking Alpha)
- Comma.ai says it can develop self-driving cars with a
very small team of people, recalling instances of social networks built by
handfuls of engineers. (Comma.ai)
- Significance: The appropriateness of the example depends on whether you believe that the concept of a social network was a similarly original novel project for these (post Facebook) firms, as self-driving is for vehicle developers today
- Ford has learned “a lot” from self-driving trials. Amongst key insights gained by the team are that takeaway orders are delivered to privately-owned dwellings — often in the suburbs. Ford’s initial assumption had been that people would order food to locations close to the restaurant. (Ford)
- Virtual charging network EV Connect raised $12 million. (EV Connect)
Other
- Hardt Hyperloop raised an unspecified multi-million dollar amount. (EU Startups)
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Auto Industry Briefing — week ending 20th October 2019
Daimler apps overly generous with location data; OEMs that still won’t commit to meeting CO2 targets; and a battery maker with an optimistic outlook. Please enjoy our auto industry and mobility briefing for 14th October to 20th October 2019. A PDF version can be found here.
Before you read the detail, what were my favourite stories of the past week…?
- Lose Yourself — A glitch in Daimler’s app let users see the location of other people’s cars. Daimler said the problem was self-inflicted, quickly fixed and that the information was out of date, so no real harm was done. Why do car companies make software look so difficult?
- Make It Happen — VW says there are concrete plans in place to achieve European CO2 targets. The firm joins the likes of Ford, BMW, PSA and Kia in making similar statements recently. Mazda and FCA flirted with paying up but have since joined Toyota and Tesla respectively to offset their overruns. Surely it is already apparent that no one can afford the reputational damage that comes from paying fines, especially since product cost is cheaper than a fine on € per g/km CO2 saved?
- Always Look On The Bright Side Of Life — LG Chem say that in 2025 batteries will cost $100 per kWh, even with electrified vehicles taking 15% market share. As one of the World’s largest manufacturers, you expect them to know a little about (1) the economics, and (2) the availability of materials. Why don’t they seem bothered about the raw material supply crunch that so many others are worrying about?
News is arranged by company and topic. Stories that apply to more than one company or topic are duplicated.
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News about the major automakers
- CEO Zipse wants to add partners to BMW and Daimler’s joint venture for mobility businesses. (Reuters)
- Daimler’s app reportedly suffered a technical glitch that meant users had access to other people’s data (for a short time). Daimler said it was cached location data so although strangers could see where your car had been, they didn’t know your current location (unless you hadn’t moved). (TechCrunch)
- Will pay $79 million in fines for failing to meet US fuel economy targets in 2017. (Reuters)
- Recalling almost 20,000 Ranger pick-up trucks because the air conditioning can catch fire. (Ford)
- Will make remote connectivity features free for all vehicles, reversing an earlier strategy where users were charged (something many competitors continue to pursue). Ford’s suggestion is that increased customer loyalty will offset the costs of running the infrastructure necessary to enable the service. (Ford)
- Signed a deal with VW’s Electrify America charging network to allow Ford owners to use their chargers. (Ford)
- Ford’s forthcoming electric vehicles will only be capable of charging at up to 150 kW, despite Ford being a founder member of the Ionity network that can facilitate 350 kW. (Ford)
- Ford’s head of mobility said that although the company hopes to meet its declared target of putting autonomous taxis on the road during 2021, there isn’t any pressure being put on the team to scale up after that. (Forbes)
Geely (includes Volvo) (history)
- Volvo will badge battery electric cars under the Recharge sub-brand. (Volvo)
- Volvo plans to be carbon neutral by 2040. (Volvo)
- Volvo’s CEO says that most start-ups “underestimate the challenge” of building a new car. (Telegraph)
- Reached a deal with US unionised workers (who will stay on strike until it is ratified). (GM)
- Agreed not to close the Detroit-Hamtramck, USA, plant and will build a new electric vehicle there. Factories in Lordstown, Warren and Baltimore will close when their product lifecycle ends. (Detroit Free Press)
- Rumours swirled that the reprieved plant will build a Hummer badged pick-up and SUV. (Reuters)
- Working with the US Army on cybersecurity improvements. (GM)
- Invested in automotive cybersecurity developer Upstream Security. (Upstream Security)
- Has developed an adaptive cruise control system that recalibrates itself based on the owner’s behaviour (distance to vehicles in front, rate of acceleration, time to respond to actions of the vehicle in front). Hyundai makes clear that some “unsafe” driver behaviour will be ignored by the system. (Hyundai)
- Plans to spend $35 billion on new product and M&A by 2023. (Reuters)
- Kia says that because of shortages of batteries and electric motors it won’t launch the all-electric version of the Soul in the US market until 2021. (Inside EVs)
Mazda
- Published the detail sustainability report and annual report covering 2018/19. (Mazda)
PSA (includes Opel/Vauxhall) (history)
- Sold 674,055 vehicles in Q3 2019, a (4)% decline versus a year earlier. (PSA)
- Citroën thinks that a hard Brexit would reduce UK industry sales by at least 10%, and up to 25%. The Brand also believes that UK dealers must be multi-franchise to be profitable (Automotive Manager) and “a lot” of UK dealers can only make money with an industry level of 2.5 million units or above. (Car Dealer)
- PSA’s forthcoming all-electric 1 tonne vans will have larger batteries than some competitors are considering — 50 kWh for base models and a 75 kWh longer range (300km WLTP) version. (PSA)
- Faurecia announced third quarter revenues of €4.2 billion. (Faurecia)
- Renault sold 852,699 vehicles in Q3 2019, a (4.4)% decrease on a year-over-year basis. (Renault)
- Pre-announced Q3 2019 revenues of €11.3 billion, down (1.6)% on a year-over-year basis and issued a profits warning. Renault say that full year revenues will fall about (3)% – (4)% and operating margin will be around 5%. Even worse, the executive team is re-assessing whether it can meet medium term targets. Renault said the problem was the economy and higher regulatory costs (less clear was why this was a surprise). (Renault)
- Reorganising the UK sales network, but doesn’t intend to reduce the number of dealer sites. (Automotive Manager)
- A French minister suggested it was very likely Renault’s new CEO would be an external candidate. (Reuters)
- Invested in automotive cybersecurity developer Upstream Security. (Upstream Security)
- Tata’s chairman said JLR would not be sold and that although he was interested in new partnerships, Tata wouldn’t give up operational control because automotive was a core business and his job is to “run companies”. (Live Mint)
- Delivery times for US customers imply that Tesla could be adopting a process of producing vehicles for export early in the quarter and US customers later (so that they can all be delivered before the end of the quarter). (Electrek)
- Unveiled the fourth generation of the Yaris B-sized car. (Toyota)
- Planning to release an ultra-compact all-electric car in Japan in 2020. (Toyota)
- VW Group delivered 2.64 million vehicles in Q3 2019, a 1.1% rise on prior year. (VW)
- Extended the deadline for proving that sufficient managerial and cultural changes had been made in the aftermath of the diesel scandal from early 2020 to the middle of the year. VW said the extra time was for testing of the changes made, rather than because it needed to do more. (VW)
- Said there are “concrete” plans for VW Group’s CO2 emissions to meet EU targets in 2020 and beyond. (VW)
- Suffered a setback in settling a case with Australian authorities over diesel cheating after the judge took issue with the implication that VW’s senior management hadn’t been aware of the scheme. (The Guardian)
- CEO Diess expects full year sales of 20,000 Audi eTron SUVs and says that margins won’t be negatively impacted by the application of electric vehicle technology because of the VW Group’s component sharing strategy. (Reuters)
- Announced
an “entry level” Porsche Taycan with a lower power motor and smaller battery. (Porsche)
- Significance: The model is a strong signal that Porsche believes it will far outstrip initial volume expectations.
- VW said Turkish incursions into Syria has caused it to put plans for a new factory in the country on hold. Romania claimed that it was being considered as an alternative. (Reuters)
Other
- Evergrande and Pininfarina announced a strengthened collaboration agreement to jointly develop new electric vehicles. (Pininfarina)
- Rivian’s manufacturing director revealed that the all-electric trucks being built for Amazon are “significantly larger” than the pick-up trucks the brand has shown so far. (WGLT)
- Subaru suspended production at several Japanese plants because Typhoon Hagibis damaged some supplier facilities. The stoppage is expected to last around ten days. (Subaru)
- Faraday Future’s founder has declared bankruptcy in the US and looks set to give up his stake in the firm; the company hopes it won’t be affected. (Reuters)
- Uniti opened the order book for its electric city car. (Uniti)
- Mahindra’s Ssangyong brand reported Q3 revenue of 836.4 billion KRW (about $710 million) and an operating loss of (106) billion KRW (about -$90 million), mostly due to a (10)% drop in volume. (Ssangyong)
News about other companies and trends
Suppliers
Economic / Political News
- European passenger car sales in September of 1,285,494 units rose 12.9% versus prior year, with increases in all markets except Bulgaria and Iceland. On a year to date basis, sales remain about (2)% worse. (ACEA)
Suppliers
- Piston Group acquired Marion Industries. (Piston Group)
- Faurecia is buying Continental’s share of the SAS joint venture that makes interior components in a deal worth €225 million. (Faurecia)
- Hungarian state aid for a Samsung battery factory is under investigation by the EU. (Reuters)
- Faurecia announced third quarter revenues of €4.2 billion. (Faurecia)
Dealers
- Used car sales site Cars24 raised $100 million. (Deal Street Asia)
- Used car sales website AutoScout24 is expected to fetch over €2 billion. (Reuters)
Ride-Hailing, Car Sharing & Rental (history)
- German ride hailing firm Clever Shuttle is ending services in almost half the territories it operates, highlighting the difficulty of running a profitable service — especially with drivers who are employees. (Handelsblatt)
- In-car advertising start-up StickEarn raised $5.5 million. (Tech In Asia)
Driverless / Autonomy (history)
- A project called Earth Archives intends to create an open source, lidar-derived, map of the entire earth’s surface, with the promoters claiming a resolution of 20cm. Unfortunately, it looks set to arrive too late to be a serious basis for self-driving vehicle technology. (The Guardian)
- Although
it has long disappeared from the headlines, Uber’s fatal self-driving
vehicle crash is still under investigation by US authorities. (Reuters)
- Significance: As demonstrated by the Boeing 737-MAX debacle, self-driving vehicle fleets could find themselves waiting a long time if bureaucrats need to step in and evaluate accidents in detail. The current standard of “safety reports” — long on jargon and truisms, short on meaningful detail indicate that this lesson has yet to be learned.
- Hyundai has developed an adaptive cruise control system that recalibrates itself based on the owner’s behaviour (distance to vehicles in front, rate of acceleration, time to respond to actions of the vehicle in front). Hyundai makes clear that some “unsafe” driver behaviour will be ignored by the system. (Hyundai)
- LG Chem executives expect battery costs of $100 / kWh in 2025, by which time the firm believes all-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles will account for 15% of total industry sales. (Reuters)
- Electric platform developer Motiv raised $60 million from investors including recreational vehicle builder Winnebago. (Motiv)
- Ford’s forthcoming electric vehicles will only be capable of charging at up to 150 kW, despite Ford being a founder member of the Ionity network that can facilitate 350 kW. (Ford)
Connectivity
- Upstream Security raised $30 million from a group of investors including Renault, Hyundai, Volvo Group and Maniv Mobility’s fund. (Upstream Security)
- Ford is making remote connectivity features free for all vehicles, reversing an earlier strategy where users were charged (something many competitors continue to pursue). Ford’s suggestion is that increased customer loyalty will offset the costs of running the infrastructure necessary to enable the service. (Ford)
Other
- Volvo Group (Trucks) created a new division dedicated to autonomous vehicles. (Volvo) The company says that demand for new vehicles is declining. (Volvo)
- Bicycle sharing firm Wheels raised $50 million. (TechCrunch)
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Auto Industry Briefing — week ending 13th October 2019
GM needing US workers as much as they need it; how long it really takes to reach automotive grade; and no more Dyson. Please enjoy our auto industry and mobility briefing for 7th October to 13th October 2019. A PDF version can be found here.
Before you read the detail, what were my favourite stories of the past week…?
- Party In The USA — The UAW strike at GM drags on into its fourth week. The upside of being a business focused on the US and China is you don’t have those pesky Europeans dragging your profits down and forcing you to make tiny cars filled with exotic technology. The downside is that when the US business stops, everything does. Is GM’s labour strategy fit for purpose?
- Time Keeps on Slipping — Denso took seven years to develop a new electric power steering system with in-built redundancy. It’s a good reminder of the grind involved in developing components to automotive standard — especially in areas where the technology needs to be made smaller and / or faster without getting more expensive. Something for startups promising clean sheet of paper vehicles within three years to think about?
- Gone — Dyson shut down its electric car program, saying it couldn’t make the business case add up. Whilst it is better to have stopped early than failed gloriously later on, the confusing thing is how it took so long to reach this stage? A £1 billion price tag (excluding batteries) for a car that, in its initial guise, was expected to only sell 10,000 units; a brand-new factory nowhere near a premium car supply base; a development centre with only 10 miles of test track…
News is arranged by company and topic. Stories that apply to more than one company or topic are duplicated.
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News about the major automakers
- Delivered 613,361 cars in Q3 2019, up 3.6% on a year-over-year basis. (BMW)
- Despite Daimler’s Smart brand going all electric in the next couple of years, Mini will continue with internal combustion engines for the next ten years (although it will also have some all-electric and PHEV models during that time). (Autocar)
- VDL’s Nedcar plant is shedding temporary labour, indicating that extra Mini volume isn’t moving there in the near future, despite BMW’s warnings to UK politicians. (Dutch News)
- Said it is committed to meeting European CO2 targets without paying fines. (Bloomberg)
- Delivered 590,514 cars in Q3 2019, a 12.2% increase on a year-over-year basis. On a year to date basis, sales have only just started to climb above 2018’s level, so the quarterly figure represents a significant acceleration. (Daimler)
- Started production of the Puma small crossover in Craiova, Romania. (Ford)
- Launched updated versions of the S-MAX and Galaxy people movers. (Ford)
Geely (includes Volvo) (history)
- Geely (excluding Volvo) sold 306,430 cars in Q3 2019 (down 17% on a year-over-year basis), of which 33.213 units were from Lynk&Co (down 18% YoY). Geely stopped reporting Lynk&Co’s model line breakout. (Geely)
- Striking UAW members will receive $275 per week in strike pay, $25 more than previously as the union bids to keep them on picket lines. There was also a relaxation of rules around temporary work — as long as they still picket, it’s okay. (Reuters)
- In official statements, the UAW complained about GM’s bargaining tactics saying employees wanted to be back at work but the company had not been negotiating in good faith. Despite all this it made a counter proposal late on Friday (but didn’t say what was in it). (UAW)
- GM said it had made an upgraded offer on Monday but hadn’t hear back all week. (GM) Details then started to leak out from people familiar with the matter — $9 billion of investment, guaranteed permanent positions for temporary workers with more than three years’ service and higher signing bonuses all round. (Bloomberg)
- The UAW strike will reportedly delay the market introduction of the new Corvette as GM will prioritise catching up on missed production. (Detroit Free Press)
- Hyundai sold 1.1 million cars in Q3 2019, a (1.5)% drop on a year-over-year basis. (Hyundai)
- Settled a case brought by US owners over defective engines. The deal will cost about $760 million. (Hyundai)
Nissan (includes Mitsubishi) (history)
- Announced that Makoto Uchida, the head of Nissan’s operations in China, as the new CEO with Mitsubishi’s COO, Ashwani Gupta, taking the same role at Nissan. Jun Seki, seen as one of two frontrunners was given a new role as deputy COO, the fate of current interim CEO Yasuhiro Yamauchi is unclear. All the changes will be effective from 1st January 2020. (Nissan)
- Said that a no deal Brexit, with accompanying tariffs on finished vehicles sent between continental Europe and the UK would potentially render the entire European business “unsustainable”. (BBC)
- Ending the night shift at the Sunderland, UK, plant but beefing up the line rate so that the factory’s output and workforce will remain the same. (BBC)
PSA (includes Opel/Vauxhall) (history)
- Started production of the next generation Corsa in Zaragoza, Spain. (PSA)
- Fired CEO Bolloré and installed the CFO as interim chief executive. (Renault) Bolloré was understandably dismayed by the decision, having only officially held the job since January. Before the decision was officially announced, he told reporters that the move was a “coup”. (Reuters)
- Working on plans for enough electric cars to cover all segments of the portfolio. Executives said it was too early to say Renault would be in competition with Tesla, “Renault plasns bigger electric car to rival Tesla” boomed the headline. (Bloomberg)
- Renault and Waymo are working with authorities in Paris, France, to start a geofenced robotaxi service that would operate between the airport and city centre. No fixed timeline was given. (Renault)
- Created a new mobility division to house its various car sharing and ride hailing assets, most of which have been held within the finance company up until now. (Renault)
- Acquired Hibar Systems, a Canadian firm that makes equipment to produce batteries. (CNBC)
- Revised the pay of US sales staff to increase the regular salary and reduce the sales commission element. (Electrek)
- Reportedly believes that if it opens stores superficially geared towards sales of energy storage products and solar panels then it will be able to get round laws in many US states restricting opening times for car dealerships. (Electrek)
- Invested in electric moped rental firm Revel. (TechCrunch)
- Acquired UK leasing firm Inchape Fleet Solutions for £100 million. (Fleet Europe)
- Even Toyota has a place in its heart for diesel — the latest Japanese market Granace (large MPV) relies on it. (Toyota)
- The LQ concept car suggests that the name Yui might be adopted for Toyota’s in-car personal assistant. (Toyota)
- Says that the next generation Mirai fuel car will have a 30% greater range, partly through a bigger tank, but it won’t say exactly how much until a later date. (Toyota)
- Admitted increasing inventories of finished vehicles in the UK ahead of a potential no deal Brexit. (Reuters)
- Confirmed that VW Groups three passenger car companies in India are now a single legal entity. (VW)
- Porsche is collaborating with Boeing’s Aurora Flight Sciences subsidiary on air taxis. (Porsche)
- Denied that it was seriously considering an IPO of the Lamborghini brand. (Reuters)
Other
- Dyson stopped working on electric cars, saying that
the business case didn’t add up. The company apparently tried to sell the
vehicle, but couldn’t find any buyers. (BBC)
- Significance: The Dyson electric car program looked odd in a number of ways: A £1 billion budget for the car itself (part of a larger figure that included batteries), yet a firm plan only for a model with ambitions to sell 10,000 units; a test track that seemed far too small; ambitions for a 700 strong development team, yet still far below that two years later. Dyson’s automotive squad included many experienced hands (and a few friends of Ad Punctum) and at least the program appears to have been realistic about the potential market reception.
- Nio reported Q3 2019 deliveries of 4,799 cars, a
35% increase on the year earlier. (NIO)
- Significance: Although the announcement was taken positively by the markets, volume of around 20,000 units per year at mass market prices is unlikely to sustain the costs associated with a two model portfolio in the longer term.
- Subaru suffered stoppages at its Indiana, USA, plant after a nearby supplier was subjected to a ransomware attack and couldn’t provide enough parts to keep the assembly line going. (Journal & Courier)
- US factory workers at Volvo Group’s Mack Trucks division have gone on strike over pay. (Detroit Free Press)
- BYD started a new technology investment fund in partnership with a property company. (Deal Street Asia)
- Airbus and Local Motors created a joint venture to 3D print parts for cars. (Local Motors)
News about other companies and trends
Suppliers
- Schaeffler plans to make further job cuts in Germany, eliminating around 1,300 positions. (Handelsblatt)
- Michelin will close the La Roche-sur-Yon, France, plant at a cost of €120 million. (20 Minutes)
- Minda is buying lighting supplier Delvis. (Deal Street Asia)
- It took
Denso seven years to create an electric power steering system with in-built
redundancy. (Denso)
- Significance: This example serves to illustrate that new automotive technologies often take a long time to develop as solutions must be found that advance the concept (in this case, small enough motors that two can fit in what was previously the space for one); preserve quality and meet cost targets. Companies planning aggressive development targets for entire vehicle may want to read about Denso’s experience.
Ride-Hailing, Car Sharing & Rental (history)
- Uber is buying a majority stake in online grocer Cornershop. (Uber)
- Renault created a new mobility division to house its various car sharing and ride hailing assets, most of which have been held within the finance company up until now. (Renault)
Driverless / Autonomy (history)
- Autonomous delivery vehicle developer Einride raised $25 million. (TechCrunch)
- CATL will supply batteries for VW’s South American truck business. (CATL)
- Abu Dhabi and Dubai unveiled plans to test
learner drivers using an array of driver monitoring systems, checking whether
they are using mirrors correctly and assessing the quality of their
manoeuvring. (The National)
- Significance: Although there is still uncertain timing over the advent of fully autonomous vehicles, what is already known categorically is that driver assistance systems reduce accident rate and severity. By also acknowledging that computers can be better than humans at monitoring driving (because, correctly calibrated, they miss less), drivers tests under such conditions are likely to be more comfortable that, because they are so good at watching, computers might be better at driving too.
- Comma.ai has around 1,000 active users for its open source driver assistance product. (Comma)
- Self-driving
truck developer Ike Robotics released a safety report. (Ike)
- Significance: Ike’s chosen examples demonstrate that there are areas where the firm (and its peers) are presently making their own assessments of safety, such as on page 61 where Ike judge that the vehicle is operating safely provided the localisation error is less than 0.3m. Without a standardised approach (driven by regulatory blessing), Ike and its competitors run the risk that their systems could later be judged unsafe and, if they have followed a neural net learning approach rather than using a rules-based method, it could take a long time to update the driving artificial intelligence to meet the new criteria. This is an acute risk when looking to use the vehicles in new regulatory territories. Ike suggests that it has a substantial rules-based approach by declaring that it can encode laws directly into the vehicle behaviour (page 78). Ike point out that certain existing licensing considerations, such as occupant protection, are irrelevant if there is no truck driver. Reading between the lines, the firm could be implying that it will design its vehicles to crash by leaving the road in certain circumstances rather than risk collision with other road users. (Ike)
- Chipmaker
ARM (owned by SoftBank) created a working group, along with Bosch,
Continental, DENSO, GM, Nvidia, NXP and
Toyota to develop common architectures for self-driving vehicle hardware. (AVCC)
- Significance: The creation of this group, the second such entity Toyota and GM have joined this year following an effort spearheaded by the SAE, suggests that either no one involved feels they have a good solution at present, or they are very happy to bin it if someone else has a better idea.
- Renault and Waymo are working with authorities in Paris, France, to start a geofenced robotaxi service that would operate between the airport and city centre. No fixed timeline was given. (Renault)
- Hanergy Glory says that a car with solar panels fit for 20km of range will virtually never need to be charged (1.6 KWh by their maths). It has developed such a vehicle and hopes to raise $25 million to bring it into production. It says that it already has a contract to supply 140,000 units to a delivery company. (Hanergy Glory)
Other
- Electric moped rental firm Revel raised $28 million. (TechCrunch)
- German electric scooter rental start-up Tier raised €55 million. (EU Startups)
- Flying taxi developer Lilium apparently reckons it will need $500 million to realise its products. (TechCrunch)
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Auto Industry Briefing — week ending 6th October 2019
The electric vehicle brand losing its shirt; Nissan’s artisanal robots; and Volvo and Geely do something very sensible. Please enjoy our auto industry and mobility briefing for 30th September to 6th October 2019. A PDF version can be found here.
Before you read the detail, what were my favourite stories of the past week…?
- Closing Time — Deutsche Post, owners of electric delivery van pioneers StreetScooter say the brand will lose a significant double-digit figure in 2019 and they aren’t prepared to order more vans than the delivery business needs just to prop up the business. The vehicle has been in production for a while, the plant has been built, so is there simply a fundamental problem with the unit cost? If so, is this an issue unique to StreetScooter, or should other electric van companies be redoing their maths?
- Bangarang — Nissan say they’ve cracked the problem of getting robots to do a good job of panel beating. Artisanal coachbuilding is testament to what skilled hands, hammers and something to knock and sheet of metal can achieve and now Nissan’s robots do pretty much the same thing. Although it takes a long time to make a panel, no stamping tool is needed. Is the technology too good to be true? Will it usher in an age of beautiful, limited production run, yet affordable vehicles?
- Rev it Up — Volvo and Geely plan to merge, and perhaps ultimately spin off, their internal combustion engine making divisions. This is consistent with a recent trend for Volvo to take very sensible future-looking choices whilst many peers dither. It all looks a bit like the strategy we advanced with Evercore ISI calling for OEMs to team up as internal combustion engines become less important. The key acid test for Volvo and Geely’s scheme…? Will they really be allowed to sell to whoever they want (and will the prices be reasonable)?
News is arranged by company and topic. Stories that apply to more than one company or topic are duplicated.
Find our archive here.
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News about the major automakers
- Reportedly looking to reduce the hours of thousands of top-graded German hourly paid workers (from 40 to 35 per week) to save money. (Xinhua)
- Rolls-Royce suffered the loss of a second design head this year. (BMW)
- Laying off 900 workers at truck plants in the USA. (Salisbury Post)
- Sold 565,034 vehicles in the US during Q3 2019, almost the same as Q2 2018. Whilst Ram sales increased and Jeep held about steady, other brands got pummelled. (FCA)
- UAW officials said that talks with FCA were proceeding well, although they didn’t sound quite as positive as those underway at Ford. (Detroit Free Press)
- Employees at the Cassino, Italy, plant went on strike after a workplace death. (Detroit Free Press)
- Confirmed the creation of a joint venture with Mahindra (51% Mahindra / 49% Ford) that will absorb most of Ford’s operations in India, excluding some commercial teams and the Sanand Engine Plant. Mahindra will take the lead in running the outfit, which will sell Ford brand cars in India and Mahindra vehicles internationally, which the partners have valued at $275 million. (Ford)
- UAW negotiators said significant progress was being made in contract talks with Ford, with 18 out of 20 subcommittees reaching tentative agreements whilst awaiting the outcome of GM negotiations to set the pattern for high level pay and conditions. (CNBC)
- Ford’s head of talent (HR) says the company is developing new ways to listen to its employees in a bid to “hack” the firm’s culture, including quarterly pulse surveys. (Search HR Software)
- Received a patent for a convertible pick-up cab, sparking speculation that a topless Ranger or Bronco badged vehicle might be offered. (Fox)
- Sold 580,251 vehicles in the US during Q3 2019, a fall of (4.9)% on a year over year basis. Sales of cars and SUVs were strongly down but Ford said SUV volumes would recover after it new portfolio had ramped up. (Ford)
- Has created four offices in Detroit, London, Palo Alto (California) and Shanghai to follow the human-centred design method beloved of CEO Hackett. Ironically the press release is full of gobbledegook regular human beings will struggle to understand such as “build confidence and optionality in business decisions”. Oh dear. (Ford)
- Responding
to news reports of job cuts in the mobility division, Ford implied it has a
workforce of 2,500 globally working on mobility platforms and products. (Detroit
Free Press)
- Significance: With such a huge team, yet little in the way of product currently available, the size of Ford’s team begs the question: is there something big in the works or is Ford wasting mammoth resources?
Geely (includes Volvo) (history)
- Volvo and
Geely are merging their internal combustion engine activities with a view to
creating an independent organisation that can freely supply other car companies.
There will be a phased transition: first each brand will put its powertrain
operations on a standalone basis; then they will be merged. (Volvo)
- Significance: With a portfolio that spans value products up to cutting edge mid-size (high power 2.0L) diesel and gasoline engines, the test of whether this is an exercise to ring fence Volvo from legacy liabilities (a la original Delphi / Visteon) or truly create a new global player will be in the acquisition of new business.
- Lynk&Co plans to have only two permanent display locations in each country, augmented by truck-based roving stores. (Autocar) The only model that will be available in Europe with the much-touted subscription option is the 01 SUV. Lynk&Co’s CEO thinks the brand might sell 140,000 – 150,000 cars in 2019, up about 30% on a year-over-year basis (this would imply a huge sales push in the final months of 2019; up to the end of August the improvement was more like 5%). (Auto Express)
- Delivered 738,638 vehicles in the US during Q3 2019, a 6.3% increase on a year earlier. (GM)
- As the US strike dragged on, UAW negotiators said GM’s attitude had taken a turn for the worse and published emails berating GM negotiating top brass. (Detroit Free Press)
- Laid off 6,000 workers in Mexico due to the US strike. (Reuters)
- Many of the workers picketing GM plants are from Ford and FCA. (Detroit Free Press)
- The Cruise team published a blog post about their hardware development approach. The short version is that cool sensors have existed for decades in the military, so applying them to cars at prohibitive cost points isn’t clever. GM believe that making the sensors affordable is a massive challenge that only a few companies have the financial wherewithal to conquer — a view that investors in smaller firms will hope is incorrect. (GM)
- Acquired app developer Drivemode. (Honda)
- Hyundai’s Cradle VC unit invested in driver monitoring firm Netradyne. As part of the deal, Hyundai will get access to data collected by Netradyne’s dashcams, potentially a useful source of information in building datasets for autonomous driving (having covered 350 miles already). (Hyundai)
Nissan (includes Mitsubishi) (history)
- Nissan has started using an automated process for metal forming that uses two robots applying pressure to a panel from each side, rather than using conventional press tools, essentially recreating artisanal techniques. Nissan says it will use the technology for aftermarket body kits and to produce spare parts for very old cars. (Nissan)
- Reportedly considering moving production of the Juke and Qashqai out of the Sunderland, UK, plant in the event of a no deal Brexit. Nissan refused to confirm or deny the rumours. (Detroit Free Press)
- Despite persistent rumours of Nissan pulling out of South Korea, the firm says it will continue there. (Korea Herald)
- Nissan unveiled the IMk, a concept small MPV that the brand says uses an all-new electric vehicle platform. The vehicle shows Nissan’s interpretation of a near-buttonless cabin. (Nissan)
- Nissan’s board has reportedly been conducting an analysis of the leadership qualities possessed by the shortlisted candidates for the CEO role and found that the acting CEO is favoured by the old guard whilst the recent head of Nissan’s China operations is better liked by younger managers and is seen as more likely to be revolutionary. (Reuters)
PSA (includes Opel/Vauxhall) (history)
- The manufacturing launch of the Grandland X at the Eisenach, Germany, plant is reportedly going badly with only 90 cars per shift being built against a target of 220. Because the car is also produced in France, there is no disruption to sales (although the plan is for Eisenach to become the single source in 2020). (Handelsblatt)
- Renault
launched a service called Mobility Consulting in France, seemingly an attempt
at solution-based selling for fleets by advising them how much Renault electric
vehicles could save on their total cost of ownership. (Renault)
- Significance: European fleets are notoriously disinterested in manufacturer’s assessments about ownership cost, preferring to use their own, or third party, data. It will be interesting to see whether the approach gains any traction.
Suzuki
- Revealed a series of small cars including an autonomous minibus. (Suzuki)
- Delivered
97,000 cars in Q3 2019, falling short of expectations (stoked by emails from
Elon Musk) that the number would be at least 100,000. Tesla chose to
concentrate on an increase in Model 3 orders, although it didn’t provide
specifics. (Tesla)
- Significance: Elon Musk’s “leaked” emails yet again proved inaccurate, despite forecasting only near-term figures.
- Early users of Tesla’s recently released “summon” feature, a first step towards autonomous driving that lets users order their car to find them in car parks posted videos of scrapes. Tesla noted drily that the cars “may not detect all obstacles”. (Reuters)
- Acquired computer vision company Deepscale. (CNBC)
- A lawsuit alleges that Tesla made an over the air update to limit battery performance so as to avoid physical battery replacement for some units that might otherwise catch fire and that thousands of owners have seen their driving range reduced as a result. (Reuters)
- Toyota’s
Indian manufacturing operations plans to recycle 96% of all plastics used and
wants to send zero waste to landfill. (Economic
Times of India)
- Significance: As regulators in the West push for better environmental standards, it is almost easy to forget that the same thing is happening in emerging markets too. Whilst reducing the impact is to be applauded, it puts increased cost pressures on manufacturers as worse emissions have historically been a (little acknowledged) method of reducing spending — not to say that this was right, just pointing it out.
- Bentley’s factory at Crewe has been certified as carbon neutral — the plant generate 7.7MW from onsite solar panels and buys offsets for any net emissions. (Autocar)
- Executives say VW is already in discussions with other car firms about licencing the premium electric vehicle platform being developed by Audi and Porsche. (Bloomberg)
- The Traton truck division will spend €1 billion on R&D for electric vehicles by 2025, saying that in 10 – 15 years a third of the heavy vehicles sold will be electrified. (VW)
- Audi revealed a bit more of its electrification plans. The number of vehicles with significant electrification planned for 2025 has become “more than 30” from “about 30”. 20 of these will be all-electric, up from 12 previously. In addition, Audi confirmed that the forthcoming Q4 e-tron all-electric mid-size SUV will be built in VW’s Zwickau factory, alongside the ID3. (Audi)
- Porsche is adding 500 new job to the Zuffenhausen factory to increase capacity for Taycans. (Porsche)
Other
- Aston Martin’s CEO said he was finding it tough being the CEO of a listed company, equating one year of public trading to seven years as a privately-held concern. (The Times)
- Deutsche Post says it won’t order extra StreetScooter vans just to help the division reach volume targets, confirming the pressure on the division to stand on its own two feet. (Handelsblatt) The CEO says StreetScooter will lose a significant double digit million amount in 2019. (Manager Magazin)
- Neuron EV showed renderings of the electric chassis cab trucks the firm intends to produce. (Neuron)
- Some people are still in love with the internal combustion engine. Hennessey say that their GM-based unit can achieve over 1,800 horsepower on a test stand; now they want to see what it can do in a car. (Hennessey)
- Subaru announced a series of organisational changes, including the creation of a cybersecurity team. (Subaru)
News about other companies and trends
Economic / Political News
- September US light vehicle SAAR of 17.19 million, a (1.2)% fall versus a year earlier. (Wards)
- September passenger car registrations in the UK of 343,255 units rose 1.3% on prior year. (SMMT)
- German September registrations of 244,622 passenger cars rose 22.2% versus prior year. (KBA)
- Passenger car registrations in France of 173,444 units in September rose up 16.6% on a year over year basis. (CCFA)
- Spanish passenger car registrations in September of 81,751 units increased 18.3% versus prior year. (ANFAC)
Suppliers
- AMS withdrew its takeover bid for Osram. (FT)
- Dana and Valeo will collaborate on 48V systems, using Dana’s transmissions and Valeo’s motors and power electronics. (Dana)
- Castings supplier Chassix rebranded as Aludyne. (Aludyne)
- ZF issued €2.1 billion in debt to replace bridge financing used in the WABCO takeover. (ZF)
Ride-Hailing, Car Sharing & Rental (history)
- Malaysia is fining Grab $20 million for restrictive working practices foisted in drivers. (Reuters)
- Uber’s CEO told employees there could be more job cuts but he thinks the worst of it is over. Long-suffering staff are still trying to overcome the company’s move to swap artisanal coffee with Starbucks. (Washington Post)
- SoftBank invested in Buser, a Brazilian bus charter firm. (Reuters)
Driverless / Autonomy (history)
- An IBM
survey of consumers says around half of people think that the brand of an
autonomous car won’t be important. (IBM) A similar survey by Ansys
found that under 20% of people would be so blasé, most having a preference for a
brand based on one of luxury, values or technology. The respondents’ knowledge
must be called into question however by the low confidence expressed in
autonomous trains — already an everyday occurrence in many countries. (Ansys)
- Significance: The survey results highlight the problems inherent with asking people questions about a technology that they have yet to experience, or are even able to watch a comprehensive review of. The variation between IBM and Ansys’s surveys suggest the survey format has as much to do with the answer as the respondents’ attitude.
- GM’s Cruise published a blog post about their hardware development approach. The short version is that cool sensors have existed for decades in the military, so applying them to cars at prohibitive cost points isn’t clever. GM believe that making the sensors affordable is a massive challenge that only a few companies have the financial wherewithal to conquer — a view that investors in smaller firms will hope is incorrect. (GM)
- Hyundai’s Cradle VC unit invested in driver monitoring firm Netradyne. As part of the deal, Hyundai will get access to data collected by Netradyne’s dashcams, potentially a useful source of information in building datasets for autonomous driving (having covered 350 miles already). (Hyundai)
- Executives say VW is already in discussions with other car firms about licencing the premium electric vehicle platform being developed by Audi and Porsche. (Bloomberg)
Other
- Japanese flying car developer SkyDrive raised $14 million. (Deal Street Asia)
- Despite recent troubling performance from the bicycle rental arms of Lyft and Uber, scooter rental firm Bird raised $275 million. In a ray of hope for carmakers anxious over whether autonomy will lead to the end of private ownership and a collapse in sales, Bird seems happy to throw away scooters after 12 months of use. (Bird)
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Auto Industry Briefing — week ending 29th September 2019
GM failing to plan; Toyota’s spiderweb; and what counts as insight when it comes to autonomy? Please enjoy our auto industry and mobility briefing for 23rd September to 29th September 2019. A PDF version can be found here.
Before you read the detail, what were my favourite stories of the past week…?
- Blame Game — GM dealers in the US are complaining that they are running out of parts to repair cars because of the strike. UAW workers walking out is hardly unforeseeable, so what has happened here? A failure of contingency planning by GM or just dealers finding a scapegoat for running behind on repair work? If the former, what else might GM have failed to plan for?
- Ante Up — Toyota upped its stake in Subaru to 20%. Although the firms stressed that this was in no way a takeover, the statistics say once Toyota has built a stake that big in a brand it rarely backs off. Are we waiting for anything other than a recession forcing a weakened Subaru into Toyota’s embrace?
- Obviously — Audi published a survey into consumer attitudes about autonomous vehicles. It discovered that people are wary and don’t like the idea of ceding control to the machines. Is this new insight or simply stating the obvious about a technology that requires customers to take a leap of faith? How is this information being used? To actively plan for building wider awareness of autonomy or to give executives a warm feeling that these products won’t arrive until they are drawing their pension?
News is arranged by company and topic. Stories that apply to more than one company or topic are duplicated.
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News about the major automakers
- CEO Zipse told labour representatives there won’t be any big cuts in staff — at least until the end of 2020. (Reuters)
- Announced senior executive appointments in production and HR. (BMW)
- Said that after agreeing a €870 million fine, German prosecutors had closed the case against Daimler for irregularities in vehicle certification. Daimler had already made a provision for the fine. (Daimler)
- Daimler’s sales team is experimenting with ways to remove incentives. (Autocar)
- Maserati gave a little extra detail on the next product cycle. The all-electric sports car will launch first, followed by the new SUV, and then a gradual replacement of Maserati’s existing line-up. Each program appears to be costing the brand around €800 million. Maserati will also start offering a bespoke service and has altered the Modena plant so that customers can watch their car being painted. (FCA)
- Will pay $40 million to solve a case over inflated US sales results. (Detroit Free Press)
- US prosecutors charged an FCA senior manager over emissions cheating. (Reuters)
- Lost an appeal against a fine given to FCA by the EU for overly-favourable tax breaks. (Reuters)
Ferrari
- Ferrari signed a new labour agreement that will last until 2023. (Ferrari)
- Recalling 322,000 Mondeo, S-MAX and Galaxy vehicles to fix leaking batteries. (Reuters)
Geely (includes Volvo) (history)
- Buying an additional 21.47% share of Kandi Electric Vehicles from Kandi Technologies for $72 million. After the deal is completed, Geely will own 78% of the business. (Kandi)
- Making Amazon’s Alexa voice recognition software available in vehicles during 2020, the feature will be carried back to 2018 models via an over the air update. (GM)
- Reversed an earlier decision to cancel healthcare coverage for striking US hourly workers. (Detroit Free Press)
- Some US
dealers are turning away repair work, saying that they can’t get the official
GM parts needed because of the UAW strike and they have exhausted their own inventories.
(Detroit
News)
- Significance: Since spare part supplies are an obvious casualty of strike action, these reports are either: an over-exaggeration; dealers finding an easy target for other problems; or show a lack of proper planning by GM for the eventuality of a strike
- Announced a massive contract to buy zero emission electricity from wind and solar providers. In 2020 and 2021 it will purchase around 530,000 MWh and by 2022 the figure will be 1.012 million MWh annually. At the higher level, Honda says 80% of US manufacturing electricity needs will come from zero emission sources. (Honda)
- Will stop selling vehicles with a diesel engine in Europe by 2021. Honda has already drastically reduced the number of products available with the fuel type, so confirmation of the end date was merely a formality. (Reuters)
- Hyundai and Kia are recalling around 42,000 Tucson and Sportage SUVs because of problems with the diesel particulate filter. (Yonhap)
- Hyundai has created an urban air mobility team. (Hyundai)
- Will collaborate with Cummins to develop hydrogen fuel cells. (Hyundai)
- Creating a small-scale grid storage scheme in partnership with South Korean utility KHNP. (Yonhap)
Nissan (includes Mitsubishi) (history)
- Recalling 1.23 million vehicles to fix a problem with the reversing camera. (CNN)
- There are reportedly three candidates in the running to become Nissan’s next CEO, one of whom comes from outside the automotive industry. (WSJ)
PSA (includes Opel/Vauxhall) (history)
- Citroën finalised a deal for Axis Bank to provide Citroën-branded financing in India. (Autocar)
- PSA says
that it forecasts European fleet CO2 figures to the nearest 0.1g / km
but that the exact method of doing this is a closely-kept secret. (Les
Echos)
- Significance: Ad Punctum can exclusively reveal the special sauce that applies to PSA (and anyone else without an exemption)… The figure is a relatively simple combination of: publicly available figures for NEDC / WLTP performance; vehicle weight; sales figures (excluding certain vehicles such as prototypes) and adjustments for particularly low emitting vehicles or special technologies. The main mystery is whether PSA believes there is a competitive advantage to being able to add this up or the press office simply enjoys pulling journalists’ legs.
- Here is what JLR’s VC team are telling the executives about micro mobility players. (JLR)
- Executives say that a souped-up performance version of the I-Pace is on the cars. (Autocar)
- JLR has reportedly told suppliers that it plans to cut production at the Halewood plant. (Coventry Telegraph)
- JLR is
stopping production for the first week of November, just after the (currently)
scheduled Brexit date of 31st October. (Reuters)
- Significance: Although JLR drew attention to the complexity of the firm’s supply chain, the slim likelihood that the problems could be resolved within a week points to weak demand being a factor too.
- In a “leaked” email, CEO Musk told Tesla employees the company might be able to deliver 100,000 cars in the third quarter. Musk also said there had been a net 110,000 new orders in the quarter. (Electrek)
- The US labour relations board said Tesla had broken laws through the company’s treatment of workers who wanted to unionise the Fremont, USA, plant. Tesla appears likely to appeal the decision. (Bloomberg)
- Toyota will increase its shareholding in Subaru to achieve 20% of the voting rights. At the same time, Subaru will gain enough Toyota shares to have a stake of around 0.3%. (Subaru) Subaru said that there had been no discussions about an ultimate takeover. (Reuters)
- Toyota’s current localisation level in India is between 60% – 85%, a figure the company hopes to improve on by encouraging more global suppliers to set up shop in the country. (Economic Times of India)
- VW executives confirmed that the company was in the final stages of talks to establish a new plant in Turkey saying that a final announcement could be only a few weeks away. (Handelsblatt)
- Opened a new low volume battery manufacturing facility in Salzgitter, Germany. (VW)
- Although VW’s chairman and CEO have been charged by German prosecutors with market manipulation, the company hasn’t asked them to step down, consistent with earlier briefings to the German press. (VW) VW said that it had been consistent with prior approaches to dealing with regulatory concerns and that US authorities had caught the board out by going public whilst still in discussion with VW. (VW)
- VW will no longer engage in advanced research; all such activities must now be called innovation. (VW)
- Manufacturing cost savings are ahead of target and likely to deliver a 6% year-over-year improvement in 2019, which VW says is equivalent to €500 million. Cost per vehicle has apparently fallen for the first time since 2013, showing how slippery analytical measures of performance can be (given that VW has trumpeted similar improvements in the past). (VW)
- Audi published the results of a study into consumer attitudes about autonomous vehicles. (VW)
- Reportedly has several potential bidders willing to meet a €700 million price tag for heavy vehicle transmissions division Renk. (Reuters)
- Škoda’s digital assistant is called Laura. (Škoda)
- VW said the German government should avoid heavier taxes on diesel and petrol, invoking the civil unrest caused by France’s yellow vests as an example of what might happen. (VW)
Other
- NIO reported Q2 2019 financial results. Deliveries of 3,553 units fell (11)% on a quarter-over-quarter basis whilst revenue fell (8)% to about $206 million. The loss from operations was $(470) million. (NIO)
- Aston Martin’s CEO says the $150 million in debt the company has raised is enough to get the DBX to production regardless of global uncertainties and that investors should stop worrying about the cash position. (Reuters) Others worried about the cost of the debt — 12%. (The Guardian)
- Bollinger unveiled the B1 and B2 models and some of the preliminary production-intent specification, including a 4.5 second 0-60 mph time. (Bollinger)
- Faraday Future says if it can get hold of $850 million then it will be able to launch the FF91 within nine months and will have an IPO within 12-15 months. The vehicle’s sourcing is 92% complete (Faraday Future)
- The makers of the Polarity electric motorcycle aim to launch an economical electric sports car in 2021. (Autocar)
- Pix Moving claims that Honda and Volvo have been taking an interest in the company. (Nikkei)
- BYD would like to start making cars in India, both for the local market and export. (Autocar). The firm is also reportedly thinking about an IPO for a division that makes switches for power electronics. (Bloomberg)
- Fox Automotive wants to raise between $3 million – $9 million to finish a 12,000 cars per year factory in Hungary to make MIA electric city cars. (Market Screener)
- Evergrande announced a series of engineering service providers who are working on programs for the company. The Chinese firm says it will release 15 different products and is recruiting 8,000 staff. (Evergrande)
- Canoo unveiled their launch product, a seven-seat minivan with bench seating that will only be available through a monthly subscription. The plan is for production to begin in 2021. (Canoo)
- Lightning is in merger talks with an unnamed automotive technology business. (Lightning)
News about other companies and trends
Economic / Political News
- The UK Labour party said, should they win a majority at the next election, they would offer up £5 billion for electric car development and battery factories — provided the state got a share in the businesses. (Reuters)
- Japan and the USA unveiled a new trade agreement, but it didn’t cover vehicles. (Reuters)
Suppliers
- Continental announced a restructuring program aimed at improving profitability and planning for the reduction in workload related to internal combustion engines as the transition to electrification begins in earnest. Continental says 20,000 jobs will ultimately be affected by 2029 — some workers will be made redundant and some retrained — and that the firm aims to have reduced annual costs by around €500 million in 2023. Some of the affected plants have already been identified; the restructuring is set to cost €1.1 billion. (Continental)
- Visteon’s CFO resigned (Visteon), as did Autoliv’s interim CFO (Autoliv). Lesjöfors got a new CEO. (Lesjöfors)
- Michelin is closing a factory in Germany. (Michelin)
Dealers
- Cluno, which offers all-inclusive leasing, raised €80 million of new debt and €25 million in equity. (TechCrunch)
Ride-Hailing, Car Sharing & Rental (history)
- Uber had its licence extended in London… but only by two months. (The Guardian)
- WhistleDrive, a company providing transport of people and goods for businesses in India, raised around $10 million to fund an expansion. (Deal Street Asia)
- BlaBlaCar made an offer to acquire ticketing firm Busfor. (EU Startups)
Driverless / Autonomy (history)
- Mobility evangelists Morgan Stanley cut their assessment of Waymo’s valuation from $175 billion to $105 billion, citing concerns over the length of time it will take for self-driving technology to mature, and how much human supervision will cost operators. (CNBC)
- Chinese self-driving car developer DeepRoute.ai raised $50 million. (Deal Street Asia)
- Robosense says its lidar sensors will cost “only hundreds of dollars” once they are in serial production. The company hopes a recent tie-up with Chinese automaker FAW will help them scale up. (Robosense)
- Self-driving truck developer Embark raised $70 million. (Embark)
- Bosch invested in off-highway autonomous truck developer Trunk. (Bosch)
- Hyundai Mobis has developed a back-up braking system for autonomous cars. (Hyundai Mobis)
- Radar developer Echodyne raised $20 million. (Echodyne)
- Audi published the results of a study into consumer attitudes about autonomous vehicles. (VW)
- Hyundai will collaborate with Cummins to develop hydrogen fuel cells. (Hyundai)
Other
- Hongji Bike wants to shake up the electric scooter rental market by offering a new $299 model. (Hongji)
- Hackers stole data about 4.9 million customers from delivery service DoorDash. (DoorDash)
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