Series hybrid gets its big break; battery swapping: the impossible dream; and Ford’s hidden plant closure announcement. Please enjoy our auto industry and mobility briefing for 15^th February to 21^st  February 2021. A PDF version can be found here.

Before you read the detail, what were my favourite stories of the past week…?

• Copycat — Nissan launched the new Qashqai, which comes with an optional motor as generator (series) hybrid set up, “e-power” in Nissanspeak. Nissan says the engine sells well in Japan and Renault, who use a similar system, claim that around 30% of European customers are choosing it. The French firm also believes that it is the only way to go for entry level products that comply with Euro 7 rules (which are still a bit fuzzy). The Qashqai is perhaps the biggest selling model to adopt the technology. If it catches on, will others respond?
• If I Ruled The World (Imagine That) — Lotus showed off a concept all-electric racing car called the E-R9. It was mostly standard attention-grabbing fayre, but I was interested in the mention of hot-swapping battery packs, which Lotus believes could be a reality by 2030. The technology doesn’t seem to be in question. Does the industry want it badly enough to create the standards and shared infrastructure to make it a reality?
• My Sad Captains — Ford of Europe will only sell all-electric passenger cars by 2030, and forecasts that most commercial vehicles will be either battery electric or plugin hybrid by then too. The clear implication is that Ford’s European engine and (jointly owned) transmission manufacturing footprint is consigned to oblivion (which would include all UK manufacturing), yet none of the news reports I read even mentioned the possibility. Did Ford manage to bury the bad news?

News is arranged by company and topic. Stories that apply to more than one company or topic are duplicated.

Find our archive here.

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News about the major automakers

BMW ^(history)

• BMW has created a captive brand communication agency, called TheGame Group. (BMW)
• Invested in machine vision company Recogni. (FINSMES)

Daimler ^(history)

• Reported full financial results for 2020. Revenue of €154 billion fell (11)% on a year over year basis and adjusted EBIT of €8.6 billion dropped (17)%. Daimler says that it is spending less on new products (as measured by capital expenditure and research and development and thinks 2021 will be a good year financially. (Daimler)
• CEO Källenius says that his company has to plan on making both electric and internal combustion engine vehicles by 2030 because it is too early to make a definitive call on sales mix. (FT) Yet sources suggest he is pushing for an end to fossil fuel powered models as soon as possible. (Handelsblatt)
• Daimler’s Torc Robotics unit will use Amazon’s cloud computing services. (Reuters)
• Won’t launch the all-electric EQC SUV in the US market. (Green Car Reports)

Ford ^(history)

• Ford of Europe will go electric only by 2030 (for passenger cars). All cars will have either PHEV or BEV varieties by 2026. Ford’s commercial vehicle range will have either PHEV or BEV models by 2024 and by 2030, Ford believes 60% of van sales will come from zero emission capable vehicles. Although the move appears to spell doom for Ford’s European engine and (jointly owned) transmission facilities, and therefore all UK manufacturing, headlines concentrated on the headline commitments. (Ford)
  • Significance: In Europe, Ford jumps from an electrification laggard (and fleet CO₂ non-conformist) to one of the most aggressive advocates of the battery electric vehicles. The open question is whether Ford has firm plans to back up its aspirations, or the move is born more of a desire to improve the company’s image. The current cadre of executives are unlikely to be around to see whether the promise is delivered.
• Recalled 1,666 brand new Bronco Sports because the rear suspension might not be bolted on properly and 153,107 Rangers because after they had their Takata air bags repaired Ford noticed that it had lost track of some faulty parts and isn’t sure whether they were used or not. (Reuters)
• Ford has sold its stake in lidar company Velodyne. (Detroit News)
• Production of the F-150 at Kansas City was disrupted again. This time the problem was cold weather that shut down the plant for over a week. (Reuters)

Geely (includes Volvo) ^(history)

• Lotus showed off a concept all-electric racing car call E-R9. Whilst the car was primarily designed to bring attention to Lotus’s engineering arm, the company suggested that battery swapping could be a coming force by 2030. (Lotus)
• Geely apparently plans to set up a separate unit to plan and market electric vehicles, having decided that they are too different to internal combustion engine powered models to let the incumbents handle it. (Reuters)

General Motors ^(history)

• Cruise intends to build its own charging network. (GM)
  • Significance: It is unclear whether Cruise is effectively duplicating GM’s own plans to support charging networks (where it has previously partnered with EVGo), or if it will become the company’s trailblazer for charging in addition to autonomy.

Honda ^(history)

• Honda appointed a new CEO. R&D head Toshihiro Mibe takes over from CEO Hachigo in April. (Honda)
• Honda is changing its governance structure so that the board has three primary committees (nominating, audit and compensation), each with a majority of external directors. (Honda)
• Unveiled the next generation HR-V SUV. (Honda)

Hyundai / Kia ^(history)

• Appears set to recall all units of the Kona electric produced between 2017 – 2020 to replace batteries. (ET News)

Nissan and Mitsubishi ^(history)

• Unveiled the next generation Nissan Qashqai crossover. The vehicle will launch with a motor as generator system, badged “e-Power” by Nissan. Given the sales record of the outgoing model, this could become the largest application of this type of powertrain globally. If it is successful, expect others to take notice. (Nissan)
• Mitsubishi revealed the next generation Outlander. (Mitsubishi)
  • Significance: Despite the apparent sales success of the plugin hybrid model, Mitsubishi continues to market an internal combustion engine only derivative, indicating that the company does not yet feel confident in the market reaching an inflection point.

Renault ^(history)

• Reported financial results for the second half of 2020. Revenue of €25 billion fell (9)% on a year-over-year basis and operating profit of €866 million fell (14)%. Renault blamed drops in volume, including sales to Nissan, for the bad news. Renault’s overall 2020 net income was a loss of €(8) billion, more than half of which is attributable to Nissan,  the company burnt through €4.6 billion of cash. Renault thinks that up to 100,000 vehicles could be lost because of semiconductor shortages. (Renault)
• CEO de Meo says that hybrid cars are already more profitable than ICE-only models and the technology will be around for at least another ten years. (Seeking Alpha)
• CEO de Meo has challenged his team to reduce the time for build to order cars from two to three months today to less than one month in future. (Seeking Alpha)
• Renault executives believe that motor as generator hybrids (which the firm badges as E-Tech) are the most effective way to reach Euro 7 emissions legislation in entry level products. (Seeking Alpha)

Stellantis (formed via the merger of PSA and FCA)

• Peugeot unveiled the Landtrek pickup truck for emerging markets. (Peugeot)
• Maserati chose a series of poorly shot, officially endorsed, spy shots of the Greycale SUV to go viral via employee social media accounts. (Maserati)
• CEO Tavares has created a task force to understand why the various Stellantis brands have failed to gain traction in China (under both FCA and PSA ownership). He suggested all options are on the table. (Automotive News)

Tata (includes JLR) ^(history)

• JLR plans to cut 2,000 non-manufacturing jobs through its turnaround plan. (Sky News)

Toyota ^(history)

• Toyota is part of a group studying hydrogen needs in Japan which has concluded that industrial need for hydrogen is so large that the country might as well invest in enough infrastructure to provide fuel for vehicles too. (Toyota)
• Invested in machine vision company Recogni. (FINSMES)

VW Group ^(history)

• VW increased prices for its vehicles in Germany — in line with normal custom — except for all-electric models. (VW)
• Amid persistent rumours that VW plans to spin off the sportscar company, Porsche’s boss says the brand has stepped up cost saving efforts and aims to save €10 billion over the next five years, up from €6 billion. (Manager Magazin)
• Porsche’s CEO said that Rimac could “play a role” in the future of Bugatti. (Reuters)
• Bentley’s CEO says that brand’s order bank is 50% higher than at the same point in 2020, mainly thanks to demand from China. (Reuters)

Other

• McLaren unveiled the Artura, a plugin hybrid electric sportscar. The model is also the debut for a new V6 engine (hitherto, McLarens have been powered by V8s). (McLaren)
• Foxconn plans to launch three vehicles this year (one of which will be a bus) for unnamed brands. (Nikkei)
• Lucid will reportedly list via a merger with a special purpose entity at a valuation of around $12 billion. (Reuters)
• Rivian is rumoured to be contemplating a factory in Germany. (Manager Magazin)
• McLaren executives say the brand can’t make an electric car today because the technology isn’t sufficiently developed to create the product attributes the company wants. (Reuters)

News about other companies and trends

Economic / Political News

• Several Japanese auto makers had to stop production after an earthquake disrupted parts supply. (Toyota)
• Uncharacteristically cold weather in the USA stopped output at several factories. (Reuters)

Suppliers

• Allison Transmission is getting a new chairman: its CEO. (Autocar)
• BorgWarner is acquiring battery pack maker AKASOL. (BorgWarner)
• Following on from VW’s announcement last week, Bosch said it would use Microsoft’s cloud computing to develop vehicle software. (Bosch)
• Schaeffler’s CEO rejected suggestions that the firm should split. (Handelsblatt)
• Goodyear agreed terms to acquire Cooper Tire. (Reuters)
• Magna reported Q4 2020 revenue of $10.6 billion and net income of $738 million. (Magna)
• Martinrea is investing more in NanoXplore to reduce dilution from a separate rights issue. (Martinrea)
• TI Fluid Systems is getting a new CEO. (TI)
• Faurecia is selling its soft trim and acoustics business to Adler Pelzer. (Faurecia)
• Akebono admitted falsifying quality reports but said there was no practical impact of part performance and vehicles will not be recalled. (Nikkei)
• Visteon reported Q4 2020 revenue of $787 million and net income of $18 million. (Visteon)
• ZF reported preliminary full year 2020 revenue of €33 billion and adjusted EBIT margin of 3.2%. (ZF)

Ride-Hailing, Car Sharing & Rental ^(history)

• Kakao Mobility raised $200 million at a valuation of just over $3 billion. (Deal Street Asia)
• UK Supreme Court judges ruled that Uber drivers are workers. What this means in practice will be decided in a forthcoming tribunal hearing. (Business Insider)

Driverless / Autonomy ^(history)

• Lidar developer AEye is listing via a merger with a special purpose entity. (AEye)
• Intrigue over Apple’s car plans continued with news that the company had called up lidar suppliers about possible contracts to provide components (one of the first steps, rather than one of the last). (Detroit News)
• Machine vision company Recogni raised $49 million from investors including BMW and Toyota. (FINSMES)

Electrification ^(history)

• Battery developer Enovix is listing via a merger with a special purpose entity. The company is focused on batteries for smaller devices but says it wants to create products for electric vehicles. (Enovix)
• Battery management start-up AMP raised an undisclosed amount. (AMP)
• REE announced a new engineering centre in the UK. (REE)
• The UK city of Coventry hopes to go ahead with a battery factory and has identified suitable land. It isn’t yet clear who will operate the facility. (The Guardian)
• IPT Technology acquired wireless charging technology company Primove. (IPT)
• Battery start-up TruSpin claimed a breakthrough in battery technology. It turned out to be a test that supposedly proved the firm’s technology could achieve a battery energy density of 400 Wh / kg, about in line with targets from Romeo Power, Solid Power and others. (TruSpin)
• The former founder of British battery start-up Britishvolt is starting an Italian rival called Italvolt. (Italvolt)
• Northvolt says that about one quarter of the capacity it is targeting will be used to supply stationary storage providers, rather than electric vehicles. (Bloomberg)

Other

• Indian on-demand mobility service Bounce has reportedly laid off most of its staff. (Economic Times of India)
• Didi’s bicycle rental unit Qingju raised $600 million. (Deal Street Asia)
• Ride hailing motorbike firm Vogo raised $12 million. (Deal Street Asia)

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Autonomous cars powered by fossil fuels; GM thinks about crossing the Atlantic; and Jaguar Land Rover’s new plan. Please enjoy our auto industry and mobility briefing for 8^th February to 14^th February 2021. A PDF version can be found here.

Before you read the detail, what were my favourite stories of the past week…?

• Walk The Dinosaur — GM’s Cruise unit laid into competitors who are driving around in cars with internal combustion engines (plugin hybrid or otherwise). The company says it is incongruous to have a car that can drive itself but still depends on having a tank filled up with fossil fuels. Thus far, self-driving developers have argued that the power consumption of self-driving AI drains batteries too quickly. How will they react to GM’s criticism?
• Get Back — GM is thinking about heading back to Europe, attracted by the possibilities for all-electric vehicles. Competitors thought they had seen the back of GM after the sale of Opel / Vauxhall, the remnant Cadillac and Corvette dealerships barely register. Is the company serious about a return, or just playing mind games with rivals?
• Thank U, Next — Jaguar Land Rover has a new plan and its heavy on electrification. Jaguar is becoming electric-only quickly, whereas for Land Rover the transition will take more time. To cope with the transition, Land Rover will user a “pure electric biased” component set, which is another way of saying E-FIRST. Mercedes opted in, then Land Rover. Who’s next? Who will be E-LAST? (sorry)

News is arranged by company and topic. Stories that apply to more than one company or topic are duplicated.

Find our archive here.

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News about the major automakers

Daimler ^(history)

• CEO Källenius said that electric cars will be as profitable as models with internal combustion engines by the end of the decade. (FT)
• Mercedes celebrated making the 50 millionth car in its history. Tesla will soon be making that many every two and a half years, if Elon Musk is to be believed. (Daimler)
• The boss of Daimler Trucks says that infrastructure will be the constraint on the take-up of electric vehicles. The firm will offer a full range of electric products towards of the decade but thinks that there won’t be enough charging points or hydrogen stations to support them. However, he isn’t interested in stimulating competition by entering the hydrogen business, preferring to leave it to firms such as BP and Shell. (Reuters)
• Recalling 1.3 million cars which might tell emergency services the wrong location in the event of a crash. (Reuters)

Ford ^(history)

• Launched a website in the USA that sells used dealer stock online. (Ford)

General Motors ^(history)

• Reported Q4 2020 revenue of $34.1 billion, up 25% on a year-over-year basis. Adjusted EBIT of $3.7 billion, strongly improved from the prior year. GM thinks shortages of chips could cost it $2 billion in 2021. (GM)
• CEO Barra expressed little interest in an agent model replacing franchised dealers. She also believes that the company can quickly transition from ICE to electric vehicles without too much negative reaction from customers who have purchased legacy products. In response to a question from an analyst, Barra suggested that the company might return to Europe. (Seeking Alpha)
• GM’s Cruise self-driving unit castigated competitors who are developing autonomous vehicles that use internal combustion engines or plugin hybrids, rather than pure electric drive. (GM)
• Unveiled a minor refresh of the Bolt all-electric car and the Bolt EUV, a higher-riding, longer version. The Bolt EUV will be the first application of GM’s Super Cruise driver assistance feature outside the Cadillac brand. (GM)
• Agreed to pay $5.8 million to Californian authorities for not making investors aware of recall problems quickly enough. (Detroit News)

Honda ^(history)

• Announced Q4 2020 revenue of 3.8 trillion JPY (about $35.8 billion), up 0.6% versus prior year. Automotive revenue of 2.6 trillion JPY (about $24.5 billion) rose 2.5% year-over-year. Operating profit of 277.7 billion JPY (about $2.6 billion) rose 67% from prior year. (Honda)

Hyundai / Kia ^(history)

• Has started using a service robot at a dealership in South Korea. The device, which uses both voice recognition and touch screens, seems like an expensive novelty but Hyundai believes it will develop in future. (Hyundai)

Nissan and Mitsubishi ^(history)

• Nissan reported Q4 2020 revenue of 2.2 trillion JPY (about $21 billion), down (11)% versus prior year. Operating income of 27 billion JPY (about $260 million) rose 19% year-over-year. (Nissan)
• Announced that it will continue to source small commercial vehicles from Renault’s French plants. (Nissan)
• Unveiled an updated version of the NV300 van. (Nissan)

Stellantis (formed via the merger of PSA and FCA)

• Unveiled a minor refresh of the Citroën C3 Aircross. (Citroën)

Tata (includes JLR) ^(history)

• JLR announced a turnaround plan called “Reimagine” that will see Jaguar become an all-electric brand by around 2025, with Land Rover’s sales of electric vehicles rising to 60% of the total by 2030. The plan comes with its costs however: the plan to base all products off a common engineering underpinning has been abandoned, with Jaguar and Land Rover adopting separate architectures. A casualty of the move is the all-electric version of the Jaguar XJ, which was almost production ready. JLR has opted for the term “electric biased” to describe Ad Punctum’s favoured E-FIRST design philosophy, which Land Rover will now follow. (JLR)
• Appointed a new CEO of Tata Motors. Marc Llistosella arrives from Daimler after incumbent Guenther Butschek opted to leave. (Economic Times of India)

Tesla ^(history)

• Tesla set markets alight by buying up $1.5 billion in Bitcoin. (Business Insider)
• Elon Musk says the Tesla Semi will have a smaller battery pack than expected, at around 500 kWh. (Electrek)
• After previously pouring scorn on the potential for solar power in cars, Musk now believes that it could make sense on the roof of a van. (Electrek)
• Independent repair workshops in Germany are complaining that Tesla may be breaching European bloc exemption rules (which say manufacturers can’t monopolise servicing). They say that the company makes them access an online data suite which charges up to €125 per hour. (Golem)
• Chinese regulators told Tesla to sharpen up its act, citing quality problems. (Nikkei)
• Tesla’s China head says work will soon begin in earnest on the company’s much-anticipated $25,000 model which will be designed and built in China. (Business Insider)

Toyota ^(history)

• Reported Q4 2020 revenue of 8.15 trillion JPY (about $77 billion) and operating income of 988 billion JPY (about $9.4 billion. Toyota upped its guidance for the full year (which ends in March 2021). The company now expects revenue of about $252 billion and operating income of about $19 billion (a margin of 7.5%). (Toyota)
• Reckons that the environmental impact of a PHEV is about the same as a BEV because of the lower energy intensity from manufacturing, and the relatively high time spent in electric-only mode. (Toyota)
• Collaborating with Aurora to develop self-driving cars, building on the relationship Toyota had with Uber’s autonomous car unit, which Aurora recently acquired. (Aurora)

VW Group ^(history)

• Unveiled the all-electric Audi e-tron GT. The four door coupe sits in similar underpinnings to the Porsche Taycan (but is made in a different factory). (Audi)
• Porsche’s head of product development says that electric sports cars will place an emphasis on aerodynamics and a lot of work on the frontal area. (Porsche)
• Will use Microsoft’s cloud platform to develop advanced driver assistance and autonomous driving technology. VW says it needs a purpose built computing solution because of the amount of data involved. (VW)
• CEO Diess is relaxed about the threat of a car from Apple, saying that it is difficult to master carmaking and Apple won’t succeed overnight. (Reuters)

Other

• WM Motor agreed a $1.8 billion credit line. (Bloomberg)
• Aston Martin says that 60% of customers buying limited edition models (e.g. Zagato) opt into Aston Martin’s bespoke service. (Autocar)
• Several Chinese car makers including BYD, Great Wall, Dongfeng and FAW invested in self-driving start-up Horizon Robotics. (Reuters)
• Alpha Motor unveiled the Jax, a four door version of theACE revealed at the end of 2020. (Alpha)
• Fisker says it has received 11,000 pre-orders for the Ocean SUV. (Autocar)
• Aston Martin’s chairman says the company should be able to sell about 10,000 cars per year once a forthcoming mid-engined sportscar is launched, with SUVs taking about half the total. (Autocar)
• Chinese electric car firm Byton, recently helped back onto its feet by Foxconn is reportedly exploring a listing via a merger with a special purpose entity. (Economic Times of India)

News about other companies and trends

Economic / Political News

• The European car marking trade body ACEA lobbied for politicians to write into law commitments for 1 million charging points by 2024 and 3 million charging points by 2029. (ACEA)
• German car makers fear a wave of factory shutdowns because of new rules that forbid truck drivers from entering the country without a negative coronavirus test. (Manager Magazin)

Suppliers

• SK Innovation lost a US intellectual property case brought by LG Chem and will be banned from importing batteries from South Korea for 10 years, after a phase out period (Four years for Ford supplies, two for VW). Since SK Innovation is preparing a US factory, it is unclear whether automakers will be disrupted. (Bloomberg)
• CATL increased its investment in lithium extractor Neo Lithium. (Yahoo)
• Goodyear reported Q4 2020 revenue of $2.8 billion and net income of $67 million. (Goodyear)
• BorgWarner’s Q4 2020 sales were $3.9 billion and operating income was $214 million. (BorgWarner)
• AAM’s Q4 revenue was $1.44 billion and net income was $36 million. (AAM)

Dealers

• Online UK car dealer Cazoo acquired reconditioning company Smart Fleet Solutions. (Motor Trader)

Ride-Hailing, Car Sharing & Rental ^(history)

• Uber reported Q4 revenue of $3.2 billion, down (16)% on a year over year basis. Gross bookings fell less: (5)%. The net loss was $(968) million. The company’s cash balance halved during 2020, to $5.6 billion. (Uber)
• Lyft reported Q4 revenue of $570 million, down (44)% versus 2019. Lyft reported a net loss of $(356) million and the current assets balance is $2.6 billion. (Lyft)
• Shared commuting app BusUp raised $6 million. (FINSMES)
• All-electric ride hailing service Havn (backed by Jaguar Land Rover), received funding from Blacklane (backed by Daimler). (Havn)

Driverless / Autonomy ^(history)

• California’s driving licensing agency released the latest batch of self-driving vehicle test data. The data showed that, on a raw measure of disengagements per mile driven, GM’s Cruise and Waymo had the most effective robotic driver. However the lack of mileage covered by competitors showed that many others are focusing their testing elsewhere, rather than demonstrating incompetence. (California DMV)
• Toyota and Denso are collaborating with Aurora to develop self-driving cars, building on the relationship Toyota had with Uber’s autonomous car unit, which Aurora recently acquired. (Aurora)
• GM’s Cruise self-driving unit castigated competitors who are developing autonomous vehicles that use internal combustion engines or plugin hybrids, rather than pure electric drive. (GM)

Electrification ^(history)

• Norwegian utility Statkraft is acquiring a 51% stake in charging firm Bee Charging. (Economic Times of India)

Connectivity

• Cybersecurity firm Autocrypt raised $13 million. (Autocrypt)

Other

• Caravan maker Airstream started planting trees to offset the manufacturing and first year of travel for all the units it hopes to sell in 2021. (Green Car Reports)
• Scooter rental and food delivery company Helbiz intends to go public via a merger with a special purpose entity, raising around $80 million. (TechCrunch)

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Steer clear of early Teslas says Musk; bright ideas that depend on infrastructure; and can suppliers afford to wait to become carbon neutral? Please enjoy our auto industry and mobility briefing for 1^st February to 7^th February 2021. A PDF version can be found here.

Before you read the detail, what were my favourite stories of the past week…?

• I Don’t Want To Wait – Elon Musk told an interviewer that because of patchy quality during ramp-up, he advises his friends to buy the latest model either right at the beginning, so they get a car lovingly pieced together under his watchful eye, or much later when things have settled down. Sounds great in practice but if your business model is to promote long reservation lists, where customers take the production slot they are given, at what point does it become taking your patrons for granted?
• Karmacoma — Karma intends to launch a fuel cell powered vehicle. Unlike most of the models coming onto the market, Karma’s will use methanol as the input field, which is converted into hydrogen and then electricity en route. Karma reckons this is great because methanol can be created with renewable energy (so can hydrogen). It needs infrastructure though; can the idea ever take off without internal combustion engines converting to run methanol en masse too?
• Ahead By A Century — Valeo says it will be carbon neutral by 2050, Denso says it will be carbon neutral by 2035. With OEMs virtually promising that suppliers with the lowest environment footprints will be treated more favourably, can you afford to be 15 years behind your competition?

News is arranged by company and topic. Stories that apply to more than one company or topic are duplicated.

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News about the major automakers

BMW ^(history)

• Invested in software code sharing platform Vendia. (BMW)
• Trumpeted an annual contract to purchase 43,000 tonnes of aluminium (as a raw material for use in BMW’s own foundry, rather than finished components) produced using solar power. Since the order is only around half of the foundry’s needs, BMW is on the lookout for more. (BMW)
• FAW is reportedly sniffing around China Brilliance, BMW’s joint venture partner. (Reuters)

Daimler ^(history)

• Intends to spin off the Daimler trucks business by the end of 2021 and rename the remaining company Mercedes-Benz. The finance arm will be split between the two firms and Mercedes-Benz will retain a minority shareholding in the trucks business. (Daimler) CEO Källenius says the stake will be large enough to keep a “protective hand” over the trucking business. (Reuters)

Ford ^(history)

• Reported full year 2020 revenue of $127 billion and an operating loss of $(4.4) billion. Rather than dwell on the past, the Ford management team announced increased spending on electric vehicles and autonomy. In Q4, North America and Europe were profitable on an operating EBIT basis, with the European business achieving a 5.8% margin — Ford sees this as evidence that a turnaround has taken hold. (Ford)
• Ford is feeling bullish about the prospects for F-150 and Mustang Mach-E, pointing to a high series mix of the former (20% above average) and level of conquest of the latter (70% new customers). Bronco also has very high series mix and the average Bronco Sport sells in six days. (Ford)
• Analysts asked Ford management questions about how long they think the transition to electric vehicles will be, what the portfolio will look like and how rapidly costs will fall to $55 – $80 per kWh. Executives declined to properly answer the questions but promised more specifics in a forthcoming investor event. (Ford)
• Ford has returned to monthly reporting of US sales. (Ford)
• Invested $1 billion to launch the new Ranger, and its VW sibling, at the Silverton, South Africa plant. As part of the works, the factory will reach energy self-sufficiency in 2024 (“island mode” in Fordspeak). (Ford)
• Will use Google’s Android software as the underpinning for infotainment systems from 2023 under a six year deal that will see Ford abandon its own in-house efforts (despite recently using a newly developed system upgrade as an example of Ford’s design thinking). Ford will also use Google as a provider of computing services and the two companies will form a collaborative team called Team Upshift. (Ford)
• Announced the cancellation of a deal with Chinese company Zotye to build electric cars together. The arrangement had been rumoured to be under threat for a while. (Detroit Free Press)
• Said that US regulators had closed investigations into emissions cheating. (Reuters)

Geely (includes Volvo) ^(history)

• Volvo reported 2020 revenue of 263 billion SEK (about $ 31.3 billion), down (4)% on a year-over-year basis and operating EBIT of 8.5 billion SEK (about $1 billion), down (41)% versus prior year. Volvo said that in the second half sales had risen about prior year and EBIT margin was 6.3%. (Volvo)

Hyundai / Kia ^(history)

• Said that it is not in talks with Apple about developing autonomous vehicles, but kept quiet about the potential for everything else. (Reuters)

Mazda

• Reported Q4 2020 sales of 2.0 trillion JPY (about $18.6 billion), down (23)% from prior year, with an operating loss of (32) billion JPY (about $(305) million), down from a profit of around $300 million last year. (Mazda)

Nissan and Mitsubishi ^(history)

• Mitsubishi reported Q4 2020 revenue of 953 billion JPY (about $9 billion), down (43)% from prior year. An operating loss of (87) billion JPY (about $825 million), compared to a small profit the year before. (Mitsubishi)

Subaru

• Reported financial results for the nine months ending December 2020. Revenue of 2.0 trillion JPY (about $19.5 billion) fell (17)% from prior year. PBT of 98 billion JPY (about $(940) million) fell (31)%. (Subaru)

Suzuki

• Reported financial results for the nine months ending December 2020. Sales of 2.17 trillion JPY (about $20.7 billion) fell (17)% which operating income of 139 billion JPY (about $1.3 billion) fell (20)%. (Suzuki)

Tesla ^(history)

• CEO Musk says he advises his friends not to buy a new model Tesla when the car is in launch mode — difficult advice to follow if you are in a queue of reservation holders and have to take your slot when it appears. (The Verge)
• CEO Musk says that the underbody could become a single casting in future, but that he needs to launch the other products in the pipeline first. (Jalopnik)
• Reportedly wants to begin operating in Indonesia to access the country’s substantial nickel reserves. (Nikkei)
• Agreed to recall vehicles with problematic touch screens caused by the failure of the memory card but argued that the memory was never going to last the entire lifetime of the vehicle anyway. (Business Insider)
  • Significance: Regulators may take a dim view of Tesla’s argument since it was the company’s decision to put so much safety critical hardware within the central screen.

VW Group ^(history)

• Porsche’s boss reckons that synthetic fuels could cost under $2 per litre within a decade. (Porsche) He says that by 2030, he hopes that 80% of the company’s sales mix will be electric models (PHEV and BEV). (Handelsblatt)
• Apple has reportedly tapped one of Porsche’s vehicle line directors for its car program. (Manager Magazin)
• Porsche is rumoured to be setting up a factory in Malaysia. (Reuters)

Other

• REE Automotive is listing via a merger with a special purpose vehicle in a deal that values the electric vehicle specialist at around $3.6 billion. (Reuters)
• Amazon is publicly testing its purpose-built all-electric Rivian vans. Amazon says that mass production should begin at the end of the year. (Amazon)
• FAW is reportedly sniffing around China Brilliance, BMW’s joint venture partner. (Reuters)
• Faraday Future’s CEO says he is confident that his firm can reach 100,000 units by 2025 because he under promises and over delivers. (Yahoo)
• Mahindra & Mahindra appointed a new CEO, current CFO Anish Shah. (Economic Times of India)
• French car marker Hopium raised €5 million from investors. (Hopium)
• Triton EV, an offshoot of a solar power company, is aiming to make a range of all-electric vehicles in India, in partnership with Bharat Electronics. (Economic Times of India)
• Karma appears set to launch a fuel cell vehicle, incorporating cells from Blue World. Unlike many systems that fill up with hydrogen, the Blue World system uses methanol. The claimed benefits are that the methanol can be produced with renewable energy and easily transported. (Karma)
  • Significance: The same arguments that can be made for methanol production can be made for producing hydrogen too. Some refuelling stations even have solar-powered hydrogen extraction machines (that work too slowly to refuel more than a handful of vehicles). The exception is that methanol can be used in conventional internal combustion engine powertrains — great news IF you can convince people to convert.

News about other companies and trends

Economic / Political News

• The European car manufacturers trade body ACEA expects sales in the region to increase more than 10% over 2020 levels this year. (ACEA)
• Battery electric vehicles made up 10% of European passenger car sales in Q4 2020 and plugin hybrids accounted for a further 8%. (ACEA)
• US light vehicle SAAR of 16.63 million units in January was (1)% worse than a year ago. (Wards)
• UK passenger car registrations in January of 90,249 units fell (12)% versus prior year. (SMMT)
• German passenger car registrations in January of 169,754 units fell (31)% compared to a year earlier. (KBA)
• Spanish sales of passenger cars in January of 41,966 units plummeted (52)% versus prior year. (ANFAC)
• Italian passenger car registrations of 134,001 units dropped (14)% from prior year. (UNRAE)
• French passenger car registrations in January of 126,381 cars slipped (6)% from prior year. (CCFA)

Suppliers

• Supplier Xilinx says that semiconductors aren’t the only potential bottleneck in the automotive supply chain and that raw materials will soon be under pressure. (Nikkei)
• Denso hopes to be carbon neutral by 2035. (Denso)
• Valeo aims to be carbon neutral by 2050, including “end use of its products”, suggesting that it could refuse to tender for business with polluting OEMs, or even non-electric cars. (Valeo)
• Visteon is collaborating with ECARX for next generation cabin electronics. (Visteon)
• Nidec is buying the tool making business of Mitsubishi Heavy. (Nidec)
• Renesas is in talks to buy chipmaker Dialog Semiconductor. (Reuters)
• Mando is buying out Hella’s share in their electronics joint venture. (Mando)
• TomTom reported Q4 2020 revenue of $125 million and a net loss of $(65) million. (TomTom)
• Lear reported Q4 2020 revenue of $5.2 billion and core earnings of $330 million. (Lear)
• Meritor reported Q4 revenue of $889 million and operating income of $44 million. (Meritor)
• Aptiv reported Q4 2020 revenue of $4.2 billion and operating income of $446 million. (Aptiv)
• Veoneer reported Q4 2020 sales of $455 million and an operating loss of $(77) million. (Veoneer)
• Adient reported Q4 2020 revenue of $3.8 billion and EBIT of $282 million. (Adient)
• Denso reported Q4 2020 revenue of $34 billion and operating profit of $644 million. (Denso)

Dealers

• On-demand car maintenance service Vroomly raised €5 million. (Les Echos)

Ride-Hailing, Car Sharing & Rental ^(history)

• Multi modal operator Hip raised $12 million. (TechCrunch)
• Didi is rumoured to be looking to raise $4 billion to plough into delivery services. (Deal Street Asia)
• Grab raised $2 billion in debt. (Grab)
• Uber is buying alcohol delivery firm Drizly for $1.1 billion. (Uber)

Driverless / Autonomy ^(history)

• Pony.ai has raised $100 million in its latest round. (Deal Street Asia)

Other

• Truck startup Hyzon Motors will list through a merger with a special purpose vehicle. (Detroit News)
• Electric bike maker Rad Power Bikes raised $150 million. (TechCrunch)
• Alauda Aeronautics unveiled a high speed drone that the company hopes will become a sporting sensation when a one make racing series kicks off. (Alauda)

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Renault and Nissan’s lost ground; Tesla’s rigid manufacturing process; and Mini takes a step back on personalisation? Please enjoy our auto industry and mobility briefing for 25^th January to 31^st January 2021. A PDF version can be found here.

Before you read the detail, what were my favourite stories of the past week…?

• Where’d You Go — GM is aiming for an all-electric line-up by 2035, whilst Nissan hopes to provide an electrified derivative of all models by 2030 (seemingly a less ambitious target). Despite Renault and Nissan’s head start (GM’s EV1 notwithstanding), GM and VW have become the best known advocates of electric vehicles amongst the traditional major manufacturers as the alliance partners have seemed relatively unenthusiastic in expanding their offering. Is it a strategic blunder or do they know something we don’t?
• The Man Who Can’t Be Moved — Tesla announced earnings this week, and released their standard presentation full of glossy photos of production machinery. Although the company started with a principle of everything under one roof in is Californian factory, which now makes four different models, the portfolio for the newer plants is far slimmer: Berlin will have one car; Shanghai has two; Cybertruck might get a standalone facility. All this inflexibility looks a bit like traditional automotive thinking. Why has Tesla abandoned flexibility?
• Anyway You Want It — Mini is removing the option for customers to personalise parts of the car through the magic of 3D printing. For a reasonable fee, sill plates and other garnishes could be adorned with the owner’s name and a selection of designs. It seemed like the right idea at the right time. Why didn’t it take off?

News is arranged by company and topic. Stories that apply to more than one company or topic are duplicated.

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News about the major automakers

BMW ^(history)

• Announced preliminary full year 2020 free cash of €3.4 billion (€2.8 billion coming in Q4 2020), BMW said full year operating profits would be around 3%. (BMW)
• Invested in inventory management company Verusen. (BMW)
• Mini has ceased the “Mini Yours” customisation option which offered customers a selection of parts to have personalised. (3D Printing Industry)
• BMW’s motorbike division announced that although it will continue to attend some shows for promotion purposes, it has decided that it will no longer have a standing reservation at large shows. (BMW)
  • Significance: Whilst the decision is purely about motorbikes, it seems inconceivable that BMW is not contemplating a similar move around auto shows.

Daimler ^(history)

• Released preliminary financial results for full year 2020 as they exceeded market expectations. Group EBIT was €6.6 billion (€8.6 billion on an adjusted basis). Industrial free cash was €8.3 billion. (Daimler)

Ford ^(history)

• Confirmed that the all-electric Mustang Mach E will be locally manufactured in China. (Ford)
• Ford’s scooter rental subsidiary Spin intends to launch operations with remotely piloted scooters soon. Renters will be able to have a scooter travel to them from “several blocks” away. As the scooters will move at mph or less, customers may be better off walking. (Ford)
• Ford’s head of design is retiring. Ford will replace him with an external hire from Renault. (Ford)

Geely (includes Volvo) ^(history)

• Lotus is getting a new managing director, Matt Windle, the current head of engineering. (Lotus)
• Investing in Faraday Future’s listing and reportedly plans to contract manufacture cars for the start-up. (Nikkei)

General Motors ^(history)

• Targeting carbon neutral manufacturing by 2040, and 100% light duty sales mix of zero emissions vehicles by 2035. GM’s press released implied that this means all-electric or fuel cell powered models, but the wording appeared to give some wiggle room for highly capable plug-in hybrids. (GM)
  • Significance: If GM intends to be fully electric, or fuel cell, by 2035 without any fossil fuel content (e.g. plugin hybrids with high electric range), then the company will likely be unable to participate effectively in emerging markets.
• Will develop hydrogen powered trucks with Navistar. (Detroit Free Press)

Hyundai / Kia ^(history)

• Hyundai’s Q4 2020 revenue of 29.2 trillion KRW (about $26.1 billion) rose 5.1% versus prior year. Operating profit of 1.6 trillion KRW (about $1.5 billion) rose 41%.  In the full year, revenue came to 104 trillion (about $93 billion) and operating profit reached 2.8 trillion KRW (about $2.5 billion). (Hyundai)
• Kia’s Q4 2020 revenue of 17 trillion KRW (about $15 billion) rose 5% on a year-over-year basis. Operating profit of 1.3 trillion KRW (about $1.1 billion) was up strongly compared to 2019. Kia attributed almost the entire profit improvement to mix and net pricing (lower incentives). In the full year, revenue was 59.2 trillion KRW (about $53 billion) and operating profit was 2.1 trillion KRW (about $1.9 billion). (Kia)
• Hyundai and Kia will build customised vehicles for fleets using the recently unveiled all-electric platform. Customers will be able to choose from a range of options including body styles. It isn’t fully clear whether this truly goes beyond existing special builds manufacturers do for high volume fleet customers. (Nikkei)
• Hyundai has reportedly decided that, should a partnership with Apple proceed, the Kia brand will be the contract manufacturer, rather than Hyundai, fearing the negative association of being a contract manufacturer. (Nikkei)

Nissan and Mitsubishi ^(history)

• Nissan wants to become carbon neutral by 2050 and says that by 2030 all vehicles it launches in major markets will have an electrified option. (Nissan)
  • Significance: Compared with GM’s statement, Nissan left itself plenty of wiggle room to sell traditional internal combustion engine powered models: the 2030 goal only applies to all-new product launches; plenty of vehicles might still be sold outside “major” markets; offering an electrified version doesn’t preclude internal combustion engine powered derivatives. Despite being one of the first companies to believe in all-electric vehicles, Nissan seems strangely reluctant to embrace the technology.
• Nissan sold 4 million vehicles in 2020, (22)% lower than 2019. (Nissan)
• Says that the updated version of the Note, featuring a motor as generator hybrid (e-Power in Nissan parlance) is exceeding expectations, and selling 20,000 units per month in Japan. (Nissan)

Stellantis (formed via the merger of PSA and FCA)

• FCA in North America has been fined $30 million for its part in a kickback scheme for union officials (Stellantis)

Subaru

• Produced 885,000 cars in 2020, down (10)% versus prior year. (Subaru)

Suzuki

• Recorded sales of 2.45 million cars in 2020, down (18)% on a year-over-year basis. The worst drops were in markets outside of Japan or India. (Suzuki)

Tata (includes JLR) ^(history)

• Reported Q3 2020/2021 revenue of 75.7 Cr INR (about $10.3 billion), up 5.5% versus prior year. PBT was 4.2 Cr INR (about $570 million). (Tata) Within the overall results, JLR had PBT of £439 million and the company claimed £400 million of savings in the quarter from its turnaround program. (JLR)

Tesla ^(history)

• Unveiled a minor refresh of the Model S exterior. There were more changes on the interior with the central screen changing to look more like the Model 3’s display (although in the Model S, drivers will be treated to their own instrument cluster), and a steering wheel in the form of a yoke. Alongside the visual changes, Tesla introduced a new top-end powertrain, called Plaid which promises a 0-60 mph time of under 2 seconds and the ability to perform more demonstration runs before battery limits kick in. (Tesla) The car also apparently dispenses with the gear shift and will use context to decide whether it should be in forward, reverse or park mode. (The Verge)
• Although Tesla’s Q4 2020 revenue has grown by almost 50% on a year-over-year basis, customer deposits have remained fairly static (up less than 10%). It isn’t yet clear whether there is an optimum deposit amount which reflects a reasonable waiting time, or if indicates waning demand for Tesla’s products (given that deposits include payments for finished vehicles in transit, as well as reservations for yet-to-be-released products such as Cybertruck, and a hefty portion of advance payments for self-driving capability). (Tesla)
• Tesla’s emphasis on the product that plants will build (e.g. Shanghai Model 3 and Model Y and Berlin Model Y) raises questions about the flexibility of the facilities. Without much reflection, Tesla has moved from a philosophy of everything under one roof to a broader footprint, with less regional flexibility (and reflecting fairly mainstream automotive production thinking). (Tesla)
• Three quarters of Tesla’s operating profit of $2.0 billion came from sales of regulatory credits. Tesla’s CFO said that he wasn’t expecting it to be a material amount longer term. (Seeking Alpha)
• CEO Musk thinks that Tesla’s self-driving mode will achieve the reliability “of a human this year”. Since the comments were made on the earnings call, there were no specifics about what this means in terms of safety, duration, weather conditions or geography. Overall Musk sees a system needing to be two to three times more reliable than a human to gain acceptance. He promised that subscription for self-driving features will become available in the next month or two. He is a bit worried about interest in the full self-driving option from Chinese customers, with only 2% choosing it. (Seeking Alpha)
• CEO Musk is open to licencing self-driving software and charging to competitors and says some preliminary discussions have been held, but further advancement on the technology is necessary. He also downplayed the value of the next generation computer chip the company previously trumpeted at an investor event, saying the biggest developments in self-driving were coming from software, not hardware. (Seeking Alpha)
• Tesla has reduced the frequency of service visits by one third in the last two years and is hoping to increase mobile servicing from 40% to 50% of all cases. 50% of these mobile jobs are completed within two hours. (Seeking Alpha)
• Tesla is confident of meeting or beating the targets for reductions in battery cost published in the Battery Day presentation. (Seeking Alpha)
• Tesla hasn’t launched the Semi (even in small numbers) because of constraints on battery supply but says that, once more cells are available, the floodgates will open and an electric van could be in the works too. (Seeking Alpha)
• Musk confirmed that the Roadster has been delayed until 2022. (Electrek)

Toyota ^(history)

• Sold 9.5 million cars in 2020 across the Toyota, Lexus and Daihatsu brands, a drop of (11)% on a year-over-year basis. (Toyota)

VW Group ^(history)

• Started a battery recycling plant in Salzgitter, Germany (alongside a pilot plant for battery systems). (VW)
• Porsche invested in software firm Cresta. (Porsche)

Other

• Lordstown Motors announced plans to make an all-electric van. (Lordstown)
• Lucid reportedly plans to install a paint shop with capacity for 400,000 units annually, despite plans to start of smaller. (Green Car Reports)
• Faraday Future will list via a merger with a special purpose entity in a deal that includes participation from Geely, who look set to contract manufacture the firm’s vehicles. (Caixin)
• Isuzu will purchase diesel engines from Cummins. (Nikkei)
• Vingroup is raising around $300 million for its automotive and smartphone businesses. (Economic Times of India)
• Mahindra’s Ssangyong brand lost $155 million in Q4 2020. (Yonhap)

News about other companies and trends

Economic / Political News

• The UK is applying for membership of the CPTPP (Pacific nations) trade agreement. (BBC)
• European light commercial vehicle sales in 2020 of 1.8 million fell (18)% versus prior year. (ACEA)

Suppliers

• Renesas is reportedly making more semiconductors in-house to alleviate some of the pain caused by a shortage from suppliers. (Nikkei)
• Nidec’s chairman reckons that electric vehicles could drop in cost to $3,000. (Nikkei)
• Autoliv reported Q4 2020 revenue of $2.5 billion and adjusted operating income of $311 million. (Autoliv)
• Kongsberg reported preliminary financial results. Revenue was €299 million and EBIT was €6 million. (Kongsberg) The company also announced a new CEO. (Kongsberg)
• LG reported full year revenue of $56.5 billion) and operating profit of $2.9 billion. The automotive division had sales of $5.2 billion and a $(2) Million operating loss. (LG)
• Nidec Q4 2020 revenue was 433 billion JPY (about $4.1 billion), PBT was 43 billion JPY (about $415 million). (Nidec)
• Goodyear invested in delivery robot company Starship. (Goodyear)
• Veoneer created a new brand for driver assistance systems called Arriver. (Veoneer)
• German prosecutors are expanding a probe into Continental, raiding a further two offices. (Handelsblatt)

Dealers

• Dealer software firm Procar was acquired by larger rival Imaweb. (FINSMES)

Ride-Hailing, Car Sharing & Rental ^(history)

• Intel’s Moovit released a report about public transport usage. (Moovit)
• Mobility software provider Vulog raised $31 million. (FINSMES)

Driverless / Autonomy ^(history)

• Chinese start-up Uisee raised $150 million. (TechCrunch)
• CEO Musk thinks that Tesla’s self-driving mode will achieve the reliability “of a human this year”. Since the comments were made on the earnings call, there were no specifics about what this means in terms of safety, duration, weather conditions or geography. Overall Musk sees a system needing to be two to three times more reliable than a human to gain acceptance. He promised that subscription for self-driving features will become available in the next month or two. He is a bit worried about interest in the full self-driving option from Chinese customers, with only 2% choosing it. CEO Musk is open to licencing self-driving software and charging to competitors and says some preliminary discussions have been held, but further advancement on the technology is necessary. He also downplayed the value of the next generation computer chip the company previously trumpeted at an investor event, saying the biggest developments in self-driving were coming from software, not hardware.  (Seeking Alpha)

Electrification ^(history)

• Shell agreed a deal to acquire charging network Ubitricity. (Ubitricity)
• Battery developer Sila Nanotechnologies raised $590 million. (TechCrunch)
• Electric charging provider FreeWire raised $50 million. (FreeWire)
• Battery firm Freyr will list via a merger with a special purpose entity. (Freyr)
• Tesla is confident of meeting or beating the targets for reductions in battery cost published in the Battery Day presentation. (Seeking Alpha)

Connectivity

• Vehicle data company Otonomo will list through a merger with a special purpose vehicle. (Otonomo)

Other

• All-electric scooter rental firm Lime will start offering mopeds. (TechCrunch)

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